7/16 $BTC Market Overview Analysis

🤯 News Flow:

The June CPI will be released around July 14-15. The inflation data overall looks “cool,” and market interpretation is that the probability of a Fed rate hike in July has fallen sharply (CME FedWatch shows the relevant probability dropping from 40%+ to around 10-13%). This reverses earlier market concerns about high inflation and directly boosts risk assets such as BTC

At the same time, reports also mention that PPI data is soft, further strengthening the narrative of “inflation peaking/slowdown.” Overall, this is a typical rebound driven by macro positives rather than a purely technical rebound

🤯 Funds Flow:

ETF flows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $181 million, completely reversing the approximately $425 million outflow from the previous day. BlackRock IBIT had daily inflows of about $139 million, accounting for over 75%; Fidelity FBTC also contributed around $21 million

This indicates that institutional funds actively refilled after the pullback, rather than continuing to sell. In June, there were large-scale outflows (some data say it was record-level on a monthly basis); from July to now, it has shown a “sell first, then come back” range-repair pattern

Derivatives/leveraged funds: within 60 minutes after CPI release, short-position liquidations totaled about $105–$134 million (dominating across the entire market’s 24-hour short liquidations, with a share of over 80%); total crypto liquidations were about $355–$376 million. The short-squeeze effect was significant—amplifying the spot rally—but it also means some leverage has already been cleared, clearing some obstacles for the next upswing

Funds flow summary: a shift from “persistent outflow pressure” to a positive signal of “institutional inflows + leverage getting cleared,” but it still needs to be watched whether it turns into a sustained multi-day inflow trend

🤯 Technical Analysis:

Yesterday’s PPI data continued the upside from the day before’s CPI data. At this moment, Bitcoin is also about to go into another turning point. The day before saw a big bullish candle breaking above the previous range. So the support below is at 64,200. As long as 64,200 holds and doesn’t break, Bitcoin is still likely to move higher. Pay attention to whether the daily MACD can hold above the zero axis. The resistance above will be around 66,500

So in summary: in the short term, there may be a pullback from this area, but in the bigger picture there is still room for a rebound
Support:64200-43400
Resistance:66400-68000