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#加密市场观察 Why is ETH outperforming BTC over the past few days?
In the past few days, Ethereum (ETH) has clearly outperformed Bitcoin (BTC). Over the last 24 hours, BTC rose 3.8%, while ETH surged 6.1%—nearly double BTC’s gain. This isn’t random; it’s the result of short-term catalysts and medium-to-long-term fundamentals aligning in ETH’s favor.
The spark: inflation data ignites risk appetite
The immediate trigger for this rally was the U.S. June CPI report coming in below expectations, with a month-over-month decline of 0.4%. The market interpreted it as reduced pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise rates, effectively “loosening” conditions for risk assets. In crypto, ETH is historically a high-beta asset—when markets rally, it tends to climb faster, and when markets fall, it can drop harder. The same macro tailwind is naturally more elastic when reflected in ETH than in BTC, which is the most direct reason behind the difference in gains.
Deeper drivers: ETH fundamentals are genuinely improving
If it were only emotion-driven, this kind of outperformance would be hard to sustain. But this time, there are several concrete positives supporting ETH.
First, Robinhood Chain has officially gone live. On July 2, Robinhood launched Robinhood Chain, a layer-2 network built on Arbitrum technology and compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine, covering more than 120 countries. It supports tokenized stock trading and integrates with major DeFi protocols such as Uniswap, 1inch, and Morpho. This chain uses ETH as its gas settlement token, meaning traditional financial giants are bringing real assets and real trading volume into the Ethereum ecosystem—not just staying at the concept level. Currently, about $76B worth of ETH is staked to secure the network. As more institutions build businesses on Ethereum’s layer-2s, the value of assets carried by this security system rises accordingly—this is real network effects.
Second, privacy infrastructure is seeing major investment. The Ethereum Foundation has formed a dedicated team called “Privacy Cluster,” bringing together 47 researchers and engineers to fully推进 all-stack infrastructure for privacy read/write, privacy proofs, privacy identities, and more. The core product, the Kohaku wallet framework, is also being continuously iterated. Latest progress integrates light client and trusted execution environment technology into the wallet SDK, enabling users to verify transactions independently without relying on centralized RPC providers—thereby cutting off third-party tracking of transaction behavior. This direction directly targets Ethereum’s previous shortcoming in attracting traditional financial institutions: institutional-grade financial operations inherently require transaction confidentiality, rather than exposing every transfer on a public ledger. Industry participants generally believe 2026 could be a key year for Ethereum’s privacy technology to move toward institutional adoption.
Third, institutions keep accumulating, tightening supply. Institutional investors, represented by BitMine Immersion, increased their holdings by 325k ETH over the past month; their current position is about 5.74 million ETH. They also clearly stated they aim to take 5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs ended net outflows that had lasted since June in early July and shifted to ongoing net inflows. The marginal shift in fund direction itself is a positive signal.
How to understand the full logic behind this outperformance
It helps to separate the two layers of reasons: Robinhood Chain, the Kohaku privacy upgrades, and institutional accumulation are medium-to-long-term structural narratives that have been building over the past weeks or even months. They may not directly cause a huge spike on a single day, but they steadily improve market expectations for ETH fundamentals. Meanwhile, the short-term macro sentiment shift caused by the CPI data is the fuse that ignited the specific gains this time.
In other words: the tailwinds are the backdrop, while macro data is the trigger—when market sentiment improves, capital tends to prioritize assets whose “story is getting better.” ETH happens to satisfy both conditions at the same time, so its upside elasticity gets amplified further.
A reminder: historically, ETH has struggled to keep outperforming
It’s worth noting that ETH’s period-by-period outperformance versus BTC has been common in past cycles, but it often can’t be sustained. In the third quarter of 2025, the ETH/BTC ratio surged as much as 53%, only to give back half of those gains afterward. The key observation this time is whether the ETH/BTC ratio can effectively break above the 0.0286 resistance level. If it can hold its ground and keep climbing, it suggests genuine fund rotation supports this outperformance. If it hits resistance again and falls back, it’s more likely to be just another short-lived technical repair rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.
In recent days, Ethereum (ETH) has clearly outperformed Bitcoin (BTC). Over the past 24 hours, BTC rose 3.8%, while ETH rose 6.1%, nearly double BTC’s increase. This isn’t accidental—it’s the result of short-term catalysts and long-term fundamental tailwinds aligning.
The fuse: inflation data sparks risk appetite
The direct trigger for this move was the US June CPI data coming in below expectations, with a month-over-month decline of 0.4%. The market interpreted this as easing pressure for Fed rate hikes, leading risk assets to get a “release.” In crypto, ETH has long been a high-beta asset—when the market rises it climbs more aggressively, and when it falls it also drops harder. The same macro positive backdrop shows more upside sensitivity in ETH than in BTC, which is the most straightforward reason for the gap in gains this time.
Deeper reasons: ETH fundamentals are genuinely improving
If it were only sentiment-driven, this outperformance would be hard to sustain. But this time, there are several tangible positives behind ETH.
First, Robinhood Chain has officially launched. On July 2, Robinhood rolled out Robinhood Chain, a layer-2 network built on Arbitrum technology and compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine, covering 120+ countries. It supports tokenized stock trading and integrates major DeFi protocols such as Uniswap, 1inch, and Morpho. This chain uses ETH as the gas token for settlement, meaning traditional financial giants are bringing real assets and real transaction volumes into the Ethereum ecosystem, rather than staying at the concept level. Currently, about $76 billion worth of ETH is staked to secure the network. The more institutions build businesses on Ethereum’s layer-2s, the higher the value of assets carried by this security system becomes—this is real network effects.
Second, privacy infrastructure is seeing major investment. The Ethereum Foundation has set up a dedicated team called “Privacy Cluster,” bringing together 47 researchers and engineers to fully advance end-to-end infrastructure including private reads/writes, zero-knowledge privacy proofs, and private identity. The core product, the Kohaku wallet framework, is also being iterated continuously. The latest progress has integrated light-client and trusted execution environment technologies into the wallet SDK, enabling users to verify transactions on their own without relying on centralized RPC providers—cutting off third-party tracking of transaction behavior. This direction directly targets one of the shortcomings Ethereum previously had in attracting traditional financial institutions: institutional-grade financial services inherently require transaction confidentiality, rather than exposing every transfer on a public ledger. Industry observers broadly believe 2026 may be the key year for Ethereum’s privacy technology to move into institutional adoption.
Third, institutions are continuing to increase holdings, tightening the supply side. Institutional investors represented by BitMine Immersion bought an additional 325k ETH over the past month; their current holdings are about 5.74 million ETH. They also explicitly stated they aim to secure 5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. At the same time, US spot Ethereum ETFs ended outflows from June in early July and shifted to sustained net inflows. The marginal change in capital flow direction itself is a positive signal.
How to understand the full logic behind this outperformance
We need to separate the two layers of reasons. The Robinhood Chain, Kohaku privacy upgrades, and institutional buying are medium-to-long-term structural narratives accumulated over the past few weeks or even months. They didn’t directly cause a surge on a single day, but they steadily improved market expectations for ETH fundamentals. Meanwhile, the short-term macro sentiment switch triggered by CPI data is the fuse that ignited this specific magnitude of gains.
You can think of it like this: the tailwinds are the backdrop, macro data is the trigger. When market sentiment turns back up, capital tends to prioritize assets whose “story is getting better.” ETH happens to have both conditions at the same time, so its upside is amplified further.
A reminder: historically, it’s hard for ETH to keep outperforming
It’s worth noting that ETH’s periodic outperformance versus BTC has been seen repeatedly across past cycles, but it has often been hard to sustain. In the third quarter of 2025, the ETH/BTC ratio surged by 53% at one point, then gave back half the gains. The key observation indicator this time is whether the ETH/BTC ratio can effectively break above the resistance level of 0.0286. If it can hold and continue rising, it suggests real fund rotation is supporting this round of outperformance. If it again hits resistance at this level and falls back, it’s more likely just another short-lived technical correction rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.