7🈷️15 $BTC Market Overview Analysis

🤯 News Flow:

Yesterday, the U.S. June CPI was released:
Month-over-month fell 0.4% (vs. expectation -0.1%), and year-over-year was about 3.5%-3.9% (below expected 3.8%, prior 4.2%).
Core CPI YoY was 2.6% (below expected 2.8%)

This strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut. Risk assets rebounded: Bitcoin surged quickly from below 62k to 64k+; the intraday gain was about 3-5%

Negative factors: The U.S. government transferred about $288 million from its wallet to Coinbase Prime for the seized BTC/ETH, raising concerns about sell pressure; geopolitical tensions such as between the U.S. and Iran remain ongoing, and volatility in oil prices could transmit risk. Overall, the news flow is bullish but with uncertainty. The market is caught in a tug-of-war between “a bottom bounce vs. continuing consolidation”

🤯 Flows:

July 13: US Spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows of about $424.7 million

Recent improvement: In early July, it already broke the record of 8-10 consecutive weeks of outflows (e.g., on July 2 alone +$223 million, July 2-7 cumulative +$510 million; weekly net inflow about $197 million). July 11-13 saw minor fluctuations, but overall it shifted from the massive outflows earlier in June/early July (tens of billions per month/week) to stabilization

On-chain / institutional view: Exchange balances continue to decline. Whale/ETF holdings (~1.3 million BTC) are being accumulated at low levels, indicating that long-term demand remains. But in the short term, ETF redemptions plus rotation are weighing on price. The core flow signal is that institutions are picking up at lower levels, but sustained inflows are needed to confirm a trend reversal

🤯 Technicals:

I already told everyone yesterday: at this level, there will be a short-term rebound

Short term: Consolidation with a bullish rebound bias. CPI’s positive impact is the main driver. It has already broken above 64k, but capital fluctuations (yesterday’s large outflows) + government selling + geopolitical risk can easily lead to a pullback to 62k-63k. If it holds above 64.4k, you can look for 65k+. Otherwise, it continues to trade in a range

Medium term: The probability of a bottom-area is increasing (ETF inflows restarting, on-chain accumulation, and macro rate-cut expectations), but more catalysts are needed to confirm it. Historical cycles show this level often sees sharp volatility

To summarize: As long as it doesn’t break 64200 intraday, I still expect resistance above the rebound at 66500