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Tonight 20:30 U.S. June CPI is coming in big! The market has already partially priced in a September rate hike—how will the data affect things?
Consensus expectations:
- Headline CPI: m/m -0.1%, y/y 3.8% (prior 4.2%)
- Core CPI: m/m +0.2%, y/y 2.9% (prior 2.9%)
Brief outlook:
- Most likely: headline falls clearly, core stays sticky → the market takes a short-term breather; the probability of a September rate hike (currently 50%+) edges down slightly, and tech/growth stocks may rebound
- Risk: if core runs hotter than expected (≥3.0%), rate-hike pricing will heat up further; U.S. Treasury yields rise, and the Nasdaq comes under pressure
Background: CME FedWatch shows July is likely to Hold, but the September hike has already been priced in by the market. Tonight’s data is the last major inflation reading before the July FOMC—will it set the short-term direction!
Do you think it will be “bad news already fully priced in,” or will hawkishness continue? We’ll know tonight 👀