July 14 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News & Market Drivers:

The escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the US were the biggest variable yesterday:

Iran announced the “closure” of the strait, and the US launched strikes targeting Iran

Oil prices were therefore pressured upward, but Bitcoin only saw modest movement (most periods down 0.3%–3%), suggesting the crypto market’s pricing of geopolitical risk has become more mature. BTC’s “macro hedge asset” characteristic is starting to show.

🤯 Flows:

Institutional capital is gradually returning at low levels—this is the most important support factor right now:

July 10: US spot BTC ETF net inflow +$90.4M (BlackRock IBIT contributed +$86.8M)

July 13: nearly flat (small net inflow of about +$0.3M)

In early July, there were continuous inflows, ending the prior, longer outflow wave

Key takeaway: “smart money” (especially IBIT) is starting to accumulate at low levels in the current range, which provides real buy-side support for price—not just a purely speculative rebound.

🤯 Technicals:

Yesterday, the view I gave was that the move would be mainly a pullback. And yesterday, basically from the high, there was a pullback all the way down. Currently, the pullback has reached the prior range of 61,700–62,400.

From the short-term perspective right now, the pullback has not fully reached its target yet. What’s ahead is dealing with the daily MACD resistance at the zero axis, and also watching whether the prior range low of 61,700 can break down. If it doesn’t break down, then consolidation here would produce a 15-minute-level rebound; however, the rebound strength likely won’t be very large, and price may hover around 62,700. If it breaks down and goes under 61,600, then the downside would likely trade around 60,900.

In summary, within the day it will still be dominated by range-bound action. The larger timeframe still needs to be watched, and in the short term there will likely be a 15-minute rebound.