BTC drops below $63,000; more than 67,000 people were liquidated: how geopolitics shattered crypto bulls?

On July 13, 2026, the crypto market experienced a sharp deleveraging shock. According to Gate market data, as of July 13, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) was at $63,150, with a 24-hour drop of 1.4%. Ethereum (ETH) was at $1,780.66, down 1.41%; SOL was at $76, down 0.91%; and XRP was at $1.0728, down 2.09%.

More noteworthy than the price decline itself is the domino effect in the derivatives market. CoinGlass data shows that over the past 24 hours, a total of 67,734 people were liquidated globally, with the total liquidation amount reaching $236 million. Of this, $7.6161 million was liquidated in 1 hour, $113 million in 4 hours, and $190 million in 12 hours. In terms of long/short structure, $176 million in long positions was liquidated, while $60.0539 million in short positions was liquidated—meaning longs absorbed the vast majority of losses.

The triggering factors for this plunge point clearly to geopolitics. On July 13, U.S. forces launched another strike against Iran, after which Iran initiated a large-scale counterattack. The U.S. Central Command said the strike was intended to “continue weakening its ability to attack merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.” This marked the fourth U.S. strike against Iran this week.

A multidimensional breakdown of liquidation data: who is getting liquidated, and why

The total liquidation amount of $236 million is not an absolute historical extreme, but its structural characteristics reveal what is unique about this round of declines. In terms of time distribution, $113 million liquidated within 4 hours accounts for nearly half of the total—meaning most forced liquidations were concentrated in a short window during the Asian trading session, as the price rapidly slid from around $64,300 to the $62,800 range within just a few hours.

In terms of direction distribution, $176 million in long positions was liquidated, versus only $60.0539 million in short positions, giving a long/short liquidation ratio close to 3:1. This stark imbalance suggests that before the drop, the market had built up a substantial scale of leveraged long positions. Once the price broke below key support levels, these long positions were cleared in a concentrated manner, further amplifying downside pressure.

Worth noting is the ratio between liquidation size and price decline. The $236 million liquidation volume is roughly equivalent to one-sixth of the worst single-day liquidation size in the market over the past 30 days. This indicates that although the number of liquidated traders exceeded 67k, the average liquidation amount per person was not that large—about $3,484 each. The market’s liquidation pattern shows “broad-spectrum” clearing rather than a “concentrated” strike: many mid- and small-sized leveraged positions were triggered simultaneously, rather than a small number of whale accounts collapsing on their own.

How the geopolitics risk premium transmits into the crypto market

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz is the core driving force behind this market plunge. But geopolitics does not transmit to the crypto market in a linear way—it overlays through multiple channels.

First channel: risk appetite contracts. After the U.S. launched another round of strikes on Iran, Asia-Pacific early trading saw all three major U.S. stock index futures move lower: Nasdaq 100 index futures fell more than 1%, S&P 500 index futures fell 0.42%, and Dow Jones index futures fell 0.36%. At the same time, precious metals also dropped in sync—spot gold fell 1.14% to $4,073.37 per ounce, and spot silver plunged 2.23%. As the most liquid crypto asset globally, Bitcoin is often viewed as a high-risk speculative asset rather than a safe-haven asset in such scenarios, so it follows global risk assets down.

Second channel: inflation expectations and monetary policy. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transport routes. After the escalation of the conflict, WTI crude oil futures jumped 3.33% to $73.79 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.37% to $78.57 per barrel. If navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, upside in crude oil prices will gradually transmit into global inflation expectations, in turn constraining the space for major central banks to cut rates. For risk assets that rely on expectations of looser liquidity, this creates structural pressure.

Third channel: the “Rashomon” effect in the information cycle. The U.S. and Iran issued conflicting signals about control of the Strait of Hormuz—the U.S. insists the waterway remains open, while Iran says the strait is largely closed. This mismatch in official statements makes it difficult for the market to price the risk premium accurately. In an environment where information is incomplete and changes rapidly, leveraged capital often feels pressure first, because uncertainty itself tends to raise volatility—and high volatility is the enemy of leveraged positions.

Is $63k the bottom or just a pause during the decline?

After the price broke below $63k, the most core debate in the market is whether this is a transitional bottom or the start of further downside.

From a technical structure perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading below multiple key moving averages. The 50-day exponential moving average is around $65,200, acting as an important overhead resistance. The $63k to $64k range has repeatedly played a support role over the past few weeks, but on July 13, the price action broke through that area.

From a liquidation structure perspective, there is a clear “liquidation cliff” below. CoinGlass data shows that if Bitcoin falls below $61k, the cumulative liquidation strength of longs on major centralized exchanges will reach $501 million. This means once the price further moves toward $61,000, it may trigger a new round of cascading liquidations. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $65k, the cumulative liquidation strength of shorts on major centralized exchanges will reach $882 million. The current market is caught in a “bilateral liquidation trap”—whether the breakout is upward or downward, it could trigger intense deleveraging volatility.

From market sentiment, the derivatives funding rates have turned negative across the board, indicating that shorts have been adding positions in the derivatives market. But this also implies sentiment is quite bearish—from a contrarian investment perspective, extreme bearishness can sometimes be a signal of a transitional bottom.

Synchronized correlation between U.S. stocks and global risk assets

This round of decline in the crypto market is not an isolated event, but part of a synchronized pullback in global risk assets.

On July 13, stock markets in South Korea and Japan tumbled across the board. South Korea’s KOSPI briefly fell more than 8%, triggering a circuit breaker mechanism. SK Hynix fell more than 13%, and Samsung Electronics dropped more than 9%. Japan’s Nikkei index fell more than 2%.

U.S. stock index futures also moved lower in sync. Dow futures fell 0.43%, Nasdaq futures fell 1.33%, and S&P 500 index futures fell 0.57%.

This cross-asset synchronized selloff reveals an important fact: amid the current geopolitical environment, Bitcoin has not shown safe-haven characteristics as “digital gold.” Instead, it exhibits a strong positive correlation with other risk assets (stocks, precious metals). When geopolitical “black swan” events cause global risk appetite to contract, Bitcoin is often hit first.

From a more macro perspective, digital assets have recorded losses for the third consecutive quarter in 2026’s second quarter, which is the longest consecutive loss streak since the 2022 bear market. Institutional capital continues to rotate into AI stocks, and Bitcoin ETFs have seen the largest quarterly outflow since their launch. Some analysts attribute about 30% of Bitcoin’s pressure to capital rotating into the AI sector. This means Bitcoin is facing not just geopolitics as a single variable, but the combined impact of multiple structural headwinds.

The hidden risk of high leverage in the derivatives market

This $236 million liquidation event again exposed the dangers of high leverage in the crypto derivatives market.

From liquidation intensity data, the market has accumulated a large amount of leveraged positions near key price levels. If Bitcoin falls below $61k, the cumulative liquidation strength of longs on major CEXs will be $501 million; if it falls below $60,216, this figure will reach $485 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $65,874, the cumulative liquidation strength of shorts on major CEXs will reach $67k.

These liquidation intensity figures reveal a key fact: leveraged positions are extremely densely built up in the $61,000 to $65k range. Any directional breakout in this range could trigger a sizable liquidation cascade, amplifying price volatility.

For market participants trading derivatives, this means that in the current environment, position management and risk control are far more important than directional judgment. In a high-volatility environment, even if the directional call is correct, excessive leverage may still lead to forced liquidation due to short-term price snapbacks.

Key variables to watch next

After the July 13 market plunge, the following variables will have key impacts on the crypto market’s near-term trajectory:

U.S. CPI data. June inflation data will be released on July 14. If inflation is higher than expected, it will further reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates high, putting pressure on risk assets; if the data is lower than expected, it may give the market some breathing room.

The Fed’s July meeting. The Fed will hold its policy meeting on July 28–29. This is a crucial event in determining whether risk assets (including crypto assets and chip stocks) will get relief or face further leg down.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitics is the biggest source of uncertainty in the current market. If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates further, oil prices may continue to rise, inflation expectations may heat up, and the crypto market will face dual pressure from tighter liquidity and rising safe-haven sentiment. If there are signs of easing, risk appetite could repair quickly.

Summary

On July 13, 2026, the crypto market collectively plunged amid the escalation shock from the U.S.-Iran conflict. Bitcoin broke below $63k, and more than 67k people were liquidated for a total of $236 million. The essence of this selloff is that the geopolitics “black swan” event transmits into the crypto market through three pathways—risk appetite contracting, inflation expectations heating up, and uncertainty in the news cycle—triggering a chain reaction of large-scale long liquidations in the derivatives market.

From a market-structure perspective, leveraged positions are stacked densely in the $61,000 to $65,000 range. Whether price breaks upward or downward, it could trigger a sizable liquidation cascade. Whether $63k is the bottom of this selloff depends on how three key variables evolve: the geopolitical situation, U.S. inflation data, and Fed monetary policy.

For market participants, the core characteristics of the current environment are coexistence of high volatility and high uncertainty. In this environment, leverage management matters more than directional judgment—because in a “news-driven” market driven by geopolitics, short-term price swings are often driven by news events rather than fundamental logic.

FAQ

Q: What are the total amount and number of liquidations in this round?

Based on CoinGlass data, over the past 24 hours, 67,734 people were liquidated globally, with total liquidation amount of $236 million. Long liquidations were $176 million, and short liquidations were $60.0539 million.

Q: What is Bitcoin’s current price?

According to Gate market data, as of July 13, 2026, Bitcoin is at $63,150, with a 24-hour drop of 1.4%.

Q: What caused this round of crypto market plunge?

The direct trigger was the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz. On July 13, the U.S. launched another strike against Iran, followed by Iran launching a large-scale counterattack. This geopolitical event transmitted into the crypto market through three pathways: risk appetite contracting, inflation expectations heating up, and uncertainty in the news cycle.

Q: Is $63k the bottom?

Cannot be determined. From a technical perspective, $63k has already been broken through, and there is roughly $501 million of long liquidation risk around $61,000 below. From a fundamental perspective, the subsequent trend depends on three key variables: the Strait of Hormuz situation, U.S. CPI data (to be released on July 14), and the Fed’s July meeting (July 28–29).

Q: Why did U.S. stocks and the crypto market fall at the same time?

On July 13, U.S. stock index futures, stock markets in South Korea and Japan, and the crypto market all fell in sync. This indicates that under the current geopolitical environment, Bitcoin has not shown safe-haven characteristics, but instead exhibits a strong positive correlation with other risk assets.