July 13 afternoon analysis

The 4-hour Bollinger Band width has compressed to about 4.1%, the narrowest in the past week. The narrowing occurred while the price was slightly below the middle band (62977), which means that if the expansion continues upward, it must first reclaim and confirm the middle band; if it moves downward directly, the middle band will turn into a resistance level. On the news front, multiple Fed officials will speak this week, and the market’s debate over expectations of a rate cut in September is intensifying. Macroeconomic uncertainty has suppressed the volatility of risk assets, and the Bollinger narrowing precisely reflects this “waiting” state rather than a purely technical convergence.
RSI(6) is 73.42. Although it is in an overbought zone, the price has already fallen more than 1,600 points from the intraday high of 64400. The mismatch indicates that the average closing prices of the recent six K-lines remain relatively high, and the pullback has not come with sufficient low-price turnover. It’s also worth noting that yesterday’s overall net inflow data for US spot Bitcoin ETFs fell by about 65% month-over-month, showing a clear weakening in bid follow-through—this is the deeper reason why RSI is dulled at a high level yet still can’t push the price upward. If the bulls want to restart the offensive, they need to grind out a base and digest unrealized gains within the 62,400-62,800 range; if they can’t stabilize, then prices will drop further, targeting around 61,800-60,800#BTC #ETH #BTC走势分析