7/13 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:

As of July 12, the news flow was relatively calm, and the market is in a state of “wait-and-see + cautious recovery.” The main focus is on the upcoming macro data:

Key catalyst: July 14 (tomorrow) — the U.S. June CPI data (evening Beijing time). This is the biggest variable for July.

Market expectations: Overall CPI may show a negative month-over-month change due to a pullback in gasoline prices, but core CPI still needs attention.

If CPI comes in soft: it would strengthen rate-cut expectations, benefiting risk assets; BTC is likely to break above $65,000+.

If CPI comes in hot: it would reinforce the “high rates for longer” narrative, suppress BTC, and could lead to a pullback to $62,000 and even $60,000 support.

Other background: The U.S. crypto legislation has previously made positive progress, and infrastructure positives such as Circle’s new trust bank approval are still being digested, but there was no major new development yesterday. Discussions are still ongoing about whether the July 1 low is the cycle bottom.

🤯 Flows:

Positive signals have emerged in fund flows, which is an important factor supporting the current price.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs: After a run of consecutive outflows from late June to early July, they have recently flipped to net inflows.

July 11: +$90.40M (+1.43K BTC) net inflow

On July 7 and 10, there were also positive inflows at certain intervals (IBIT-led).

Cumulative historical net inflows are still up to +$51.72B, with total assets around $78B

IBIT remains the largest net inflow contributor (cumulative +747K BTC); GBTC continues with net outflows (fee-structure rotation)

🤯 Technicals:

For the past two weekend days, price action has been ranging around 63,500 to 64,500. As I’ve been telling everyone, the bullish move in this period wants to strengthen, so you need to watch whether it can hold above 64,500. At present, both the candlestick charts and sub-chart indicators on the daily timeframe have already reached short-term resistance and are about to make a directional choice.

The market has been whipping long and short in both directions over these two days. But looking at the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, there is a need for a pullback. The 4-hour timeframe has formed a top divergence pattern, and the 1-hour timeframe is about to break below the zero line—meaning there is room for a short-term pullback. The next supports will likely cluster around 62,700 to 61,000.

So, to summarize: in the short term today, there may be a pullback. But what you need to watch is whether the daily timeframe can break above the zero line to trigger a new push of bullish momentum. For bulls to strengthen, you should watch whether the 64,500 level can hold.