Bitcoin is currently around $63,974, slightly negative on a daily basis, and the consolidation in the $63,000-$64,000 range is indeed an accurate assessment. Last week, following the second wave of US strikes targeting approximately ninety Iranian targets, the price fell to $61,688, with the VIX index rising 4.77% to 16.90. Ethereum is around $1,805; technically, the risk of a pullback remains unless a sustained breakout above $1,850 occurs. ETH is currently seeing consecutive positive ETF inflows for the fifth day, with Fidelity's FETH alone attracting the majority of these inflows.

Bitcoin is currently around $63,974, slightly negative on a daily basis, and the consolidation in the $63,000-$64,000 range is indeed an accurate assessment. Last week, following the second wave of US strikes targeting approximately ninety Iranian targets, the price fell to $61,688, with the VIX index rising 4.77% to 16.90. Ethereum is around $1,805; technically, the risk of a pullback remains unless a sustained breakout above $1,850 occurs. ETH is currently seeing consecutive positive ETF inflows for the fifth day, with Fidelity's FETH alone attracting the majority of these inflows.

The ETF data chart also aligns with the actual figures, with US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of approximately $197.4 million for the week ending July 11th. This is the first weekly positive result since mid-May, indicating a return of institutional buyers after a long period of outflow pressure. However, the strength of this inflow remains weak compared to outflows in previous weeks, so it's too early to say whether it has truly created a cushion to support the price.

The current technical picture also supports this assessment regarding support and resistance levels. Below, the $61,000-$61,376 band is a critical threshold as it coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, while $60,000 stands out as a key psychological support. Above, the $65,500 and $70,000 levels may come into play after a break above the $63,455 region, where the 50-day moving average is located.

On the oil side, the truly critical date is July 17th, the date when the US Treasury Department's temporary license for Iranian oil expires. Brent is currently experiencing uncertainty in the $70-$100 range. According to UBS's scenario, the faster Hormuz traffic normalizes, the lower the price may remain. HSBC's more pessimistic scenario suggests that if flows remain restricted for months, the price could even reach the $110-$120 range. The US June CPI data on July 14th is also critical in this equation, as it will show the state of inflationary pressure before the oil shock.

For those following Bitcoin and Ethereum through Gate, the key point to watch is that the current calm is actually due to the simultaneous expectation of three separate uncertainties: the June CPI data, the July 17th oil license expiration date, and the actual traffic situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Until these three things become clearer, it wouldn't be surprising if both Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to be stuck in their current narrow range; the increased volatility risk you mentioned towards evening also stems from the combination of these three uncertainties.

⚠️ Not financial advice.