As we head into the weekend, the market picture presents a complex mix of geopolitical tensions and signs of recovery.

Bitcoin is currently around $64,137, showing a slight positive daily performance. The weekly recovery is significant, with gains of approximately 2.8% to 4.2% compared to last Friday, marking the first real breathing room since the historic poor performance in June. Ethereum is currently stuck at $1,797, just below the $1,800 resistance zone. A sustained break above this level could bring the $2,000, $2,200, and $2,400 resistance levels into play, while $1,500 stands out as the main support zone on the downside.

The total market capitalization is around $2.2 trillion, with 24-hour volume at $60.1 billion. The fear and greed index remains in the fear zone at 26, while the crypto season status is close to neutral at 53/100. Bitcoin dominates at 58.5%, Ethereum at 9.9%, and the remaining altcoins make up about a third of the market.

The picture on the ETF side is truly remarkable, because this is happening despite geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $90.4 million, Ethereum ETFs $18.4 million, and there were small but positive inflows in Solana and XRP, while only HYPE products saw an outflow of $5.7 million. The total net flow is positive at around $103.4 million. The significance of this is that June was the worst month in history for Bitcoin ETFs, with a $4 billion outflow; the ten-day uninterrupted outflow streak was broken on July 2nd. Now, a series is forming showing that this recovery is continuing, and the fact that Ethereum ETFs remain positive simultaneously indicates that the recovery is not limited to Bitcoin alone.

The cautious approach is indeed justified, as US-Iran tensions escalated significantly this week, with reciprocal attacks following Trump's declaration that the ceasefire was "over," and oil prices rising sharply. Interestingly, the market continued to recover despite this geopolitical risk. Some analysts attribute this to the renewed focus on the regulatory clarity Act, with news suggesting a revised version could be presented next week after Congress returns from recess. Therefore, it seems that regulatory debates in Washington are currently outweighing Middle East news in the market's agenda.

Bitcoin's ratio against gold is also noteworthy, having gained 28% against gold since its February low. A sustained break above the 16 level, where the 200-day moving average is located, could be a technical signal confirming Bitcoin's relative strength.

For those following the market through Gate, the key point to watch is this: the two scenarios you mentioned at the beginning of the week—a breakout above $65,500 or a pullback to $60,000—will largely depend on whether this series of ETF inflows continues and whether tensions with Iran escalate further or remain under control. The current picture suggests the market is trying to determine a clear direction between these two forces, so a cautious approach is indeed sensible.

⚠️ Not financial advice.