July 8 BTC/ETH Market Morning Report: Geopolitical Tensions Heat Up, Fed Hawkish Expectations, Bulls May Find It Hard to Stand!

Hello everyone, I haven't written a deep analysis for a while. Today I will thoroughly analyze the current market situation from geopolitical tensions, macroeconomics, on-chain data, and technical indicators combined to determine the final outcome! The article is a bit long, please be patient. Specific operation suggestions are given at the end! Those who like and comment will surely get rich this year!
Let me ramble a bit. Jiang Feng's recent articles clearly indicated BTC short at 63600, 64600, 63900, and now targets have been successively achieved at 62700; ETH short near 1830, 1820, 1805, 1800, and basically completed first target 1750. Next, under the current economic situation, let's specifically analyze the subsequent market trend!
1. Geopolitical Tensions Heat Up
The US launched a new wave of large-scale military strikes on multiple Iranian military targets, with the scale of action further expanded compared to before, and revoked some temporary sanction exemptions for Iranian oil sales. Affected by this, international crude oil prices rose over 5% at one point during trading, which will further suppress Bitcoin's price!
2. Fed Hawkish Expectations
The Fed released the June FOMC meeting minutes in the early hours of July 9, which deserves close attention as it may affect the subsequent specific trend. At the June meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot showed that 9 of the 19 policymakers expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Walsh officially took over the Fed on July 7, and the market currently prices a 65% probability of a rate hike in September.
This meeting minutes will be the first important policy document after Walsh took office. If it signals dovish, it may strengthen Bitcoin's recent rebound; if hawkish, it may accelerate capital outflows from risk assets. But judging from Walsh's earlier hawkish stance firmly targeting 2% and not rushing to cut rates, the remarks on the 9th are likely to maintain a hawkish tone.
3. Spot ETF Inflows Release Positive Signals
Bitcoin spot ETFs have ended a net outflow streak of 10 trading days. On July 2, net inflows exceeded $222 million, and on July 6, net inflows exceeded $266 million. Yesterday, total ETF net inflows were about $21.5 million, with BlackRock's IBIT net inflows of $54.8 million. However, these signals alone are not enough to judge a trend reversal; the sustainability of ETF inflows remains to be seen. Citigroup previously lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target price from $112k to $82k, citing continued ETF outflows and lack of progress in US crypto legislation.
4. Technical Analysis: Upward Momentum Exhausted
Bitcoin's rebound peaked around 64690, with 6 consecutive bullish candles, then began to close bearish yesterday. The price fell back today. The daily chart has entered short-term overbought territory. After consecutive rises, profit-taking is continuously occurring, further suppressing price extension and upward movement. Currently supported near the EMA21 moving average at 62700, with support below at the Bollinger middle band near 61900. The RSI indicator turned down from overbought and is expanding downward. The KDJ formed a death cross from high overbought and is expanding downward. On the 4-hour level, MACD red histogram is expanding below the zero line, with the fast and slow lines forming a death cross extending downward. So there is no reason to go long against the trend!
In summary: Personally, I suggest continuing to maintain the approach of shorting on rallies as the main strategy, and longs should be taken cautiously!
Specific entry points refer to the resistance levels above, targets refer to the support levels below!
Bitcoin:
Resistance above near 63200～64000～64700, support below watch 62500～61800～61000～60500～58888～55000. Suggest reducing position after reaching targets before further trading!
Ethereum:
Resistance above near 1770～1800～1855, support below watch 1740～1700～1670～1570～1500～1370. Suggest reducing position after reaching targets before further trading.
Note: Participate with light positions at the above levels! Light positions! Light positions! Focus on the Fed meeting minutes early on the 9th! Remember, do not blindly trade with heavy positions! Where there is life, there is hope! As long as we still have principal, there is opportunity. When it's time to bottom-fish, I hope everyone has sufficient ammunition!
It's not easy to keep updating the series. I hope to help everyone and also ask for a like and encouragement through interaction. Your likes and comments are the biggest motivation for my creation! #GUSD年化升至3.8% #美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌