BlackRock resumes Bitcoin purchases, what does the 5% rise in the ETH/BTC ratio mean?

At the start of Q3 2026, the crypto market is showing two seemingly contradictory forces: BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has restarted large-scale buying via its spot Bitcoin ETF, with a single-day net inflow of $209 million; meanwhile, after three consecutive quarters of decline, the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin exchange rate (ETH/BTC ratio) rebounded nearly 5% at the beginning of Q3, rising to above 0.028.

The interweaving of these two threads forms the core narrative for pricing crypto assets in Q3. As of July 8, 2026, according to Gate market data, Bitcoin is quoted at $62,100, down 1.8% over the past 24 hours and down 10.73% over the past 30 days; Ethereum is quoted at $1,740, down 2% over the past 24 hours and down 20.92% over the past 30 days.

Why BlackRock Restarted Buying Bitcoin After 11 Straight Days of Net Selling

On July 6, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded a net inflow of $209.4 million, ending the prior streak of 11 consecutive trading days of net selling. This turnaround was not an isolated event—on the same day, the total net inflow for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $266 million, marking the first time since May 6 that Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for two consecutive days.

The timing of this buying activity is worth noting. In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of about $4.5 billion, the worst monthly performance since their launch in January 2024. After consecutive selling pressures, BlackRock added positions against the trend itself, sending a clear signal.

At a deeper level, in a research memorandum released in late June, the BlackRock Investment Institute formally recommended that traditional multi-asset portfolios allocate 1% to 2% exposure to Bitcoin. This recommendation is not based on short-term judgments about Bitcoin’s price; rather, it follows an asset-allocation logic within a risk-budgeting framework. A 1% to 2% Bitcoin position’s share of overall portfolio risk is similar to the risk share of holding a large-cap technology stock. When the world’s largest asset manager endorses Bitcoin at the strategic level and actually executes purchases during a market downturn, its actions themselves constitute an institutional-level pricing anchor.

Why the ETH/BTC Ratio Rebounded Nearly 5% in Q3 After Three Consecutive Quarters of Decline

At the start of Q3, the ETH/BTC ratio rose to above 0.028, higher than 0.0267 at the end of June. This rebound ended the ratio’s downtrend across three consecutive quarters.

One of the core factors driving the rebound is a change in regulatory expectations. The probability of the CLARITY Act passing rose to about 50% in prediction markets, the highest level in two weeks. If the Act is passed, it could provide a clearer regulatory framework for Ethereum and broader smart-contract platforms. The market is pricing this policy expectation into ETH in advance.

At the same time, divergence at the corporate asset-allocation level also provides narrative support. BitMine Immersion recently increased its holdings by 42,197 ETH, bringing total holdings to over 5.74 million ETH; while Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 3,588 BTC. This divergence in how top institutions allocate between BTC and ETH has, at the margin, pushed the ETH/BTC ratio higher.

What Tension Exists Between BlackRock Buying Bitcoin and the ETH/BTC Ratio Rising

These two threads appear to conflict: BlackRock buying Bitcoin would theoretically strengthen Bitcoin’s dominance, while the rising ETH/BTC ratio implies Ethereum is relatively stronger. However, the relationship is not a simple zero-sum game.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin purchases provide liquidity support and an anchor of confidence for the entire crypto market. As the crypto market’s “benchmark asset,” Bitcoin’s price stability itself creates valuation room for other crypto assets, including Ethereum. Same-day data confirms this: while Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $266 million, Ethereum ETFs also recorded net inflows of $20.66 million, and BlackRock bought 12,980 ETH the same day (about $23.29 million).

That said, the tension is real. If BlackRock’s pace of Bitcoin buying continues to accelerate, it could reinforce Bitcoin’s market dominance—thereby, to some extent, curbing further upside in the ETH/BTC ratio. Bitcoin’s dominance index has risen to 56.2% of total crypto market cap, and this structural advantage may be further consolidated amid continued inflows of institutional capital.

Can Ethereum’s On-Chain Fundamentals Support the Sustained Strengthening of the ETH/BTC Ratio?

The main driver behind the rise in the ETH/BTC ratio comes from policy expectations, not from substantive improvement in on-chain fundamentals. This assessment is based on the following data:

Ethereum’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) is still below $40 billion, compared with about $89 billion to $90 billion before the pullback in October 2025. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s stablecoin supply fell by more than $5 billion from roughly the $160 billion level at the end of June to the beginning of Q3. In other words, the market is trading the expectation of the CLARITY Act, but actual economic activity on the Ethereum chain has not yet recovered in tandem.

This “expectations leading, fundamentals lagging” pattern means that sustained increases in the ETH/BTC ratio require additional catalysts. If on-chain indicators such as DeFi activity and stablecoin supply do not improve, it may be challenging to maintain an upward trend in the ETH/BTC ratio throughout the rest of Q3. For the ratio to continue strengthening, it needs to shift from being “driven by policy expectations” to “driven by fundamental improvement.”

How Structural Changes in Institutional Capital Flows Are Reshaping Market Pricing Logic

In the first week of July, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive, with net inflows of $46.6 million, following the record outflow of $4.5 billion set in June. As of July 7, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for three consecutive days.

The key to this shift lies in a change in BlackRock’s behavior pattern. After 11 consecutive days of net selling, it switched to a single-day net purchase of $209 million. The signal significance of this inflection point outweighs the absolute value. What market participants are watching is whether this marks a shift in institutional capital from “tactical retreat” to “strategic return.”

From a more macro perspective, BlackRock’s IBIT has accumulated net inflows of more than $62 billion since its listing. Even after the large-scale redemptions in June, its holdings still make it one of the largest institutional holders of Bitcoin globally. The buy-and-sell behavior of institutional participants of this scale itself affects the market’s marginal pricing.

At the same time, Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen from the high of 776,000 BTC on July 3 to 740,000 BTC, indicating that derivatives traders are not actively participating in this round of price gains. This suggests that the current price movement is driven more by institutional buy orders in the spot market rather than leveraged speculation.

How the Macro Environment Affects Risk Pricing for Crypto Assets in Q3

On the macro front, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 77%, and the market has largely ruled out a July rate hike from the base scenario. At its June meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but it adjusted its 2026 median forecast to at least one more rate hike.

Fed Governor Waller recently said that forward guidance should not be treated as a fixed framework, and that the market will increasingly rely on real-time economic data rather than the rate path provided in advance by the central bank. This means the crypto market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic data will continue to rise, and major data-release windows may become the main source of volatility.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 28-29 will be the next major macro catalyst. Before that, the market may be in a “data-dependent” mode, where any economic data that comes in above expectations could trigger a repricing of risk assets.

For the ETH/BTC ratio, the macro environment’s impact is indirect but far-reaching. If the FOMC meeting releases a more hawkish signal, it could suppress the overall valuation of risk assets; in that case, Bitcoin’s safe-haven attribute as “digital gold” may allow it to outperform Ethereum relatively. Conversely, if the policy path becomes clearer and leans toward easing, it could provide a more favorable macro backdrop for risk assets, including Ethereum.

Summary and Outlook

At the start of Q3 2026, the crypto market is showing two parallel narrative threads: one is the return of institutional capital represented by BlackRock restarting Bitcoin purchases; the other is the potential for sector rotation implied by the ETH/BTC ratio rebounding nearly 5% after three consecutive quarters of decline.

The core tension between these two threads is this: Bitcoin benefits from continuously strengthening institutional demand and the “digital gold” narrative, while Ethereum’s rise is more built on policy expectations around the CLARITY Act, with on-chain fundamentals not yet providing synchronized support.

The direction for the rest of Q3 will depend on how the following three variables evolve: whether institutional Bitcoin purchases by BlackRock and others remain sustained; whether on-chain indicators such as Ethereum’s DeFi activity and stablecoin supply show substantial improvement; and the macro policy signals released by the FOMC meeting at the end of July.

Whether the ETH/BTC ratio can hold above 0.028 is the key technical observation point. If it can continue to break upward, it will confirm a capital-rotation trend and open room toward the 0.032 level (which was touched in April); if it cannot break through, it will reinforce Bitcoin’s dominance. Regardless of which path becomes reality, institutional capital flows will remain the core pricing variable throughout Q3.

FAQ

Q: What is the ETH/BTC ratio, and why is it important?

A: The ETH/BTC ratio is the value of Ethereum divided by the value of Bitcoin, reflecting changes in Ethereum’s relative strength versus Bitcoin. An increase in the ratio means Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin; a decrease means the opposite. It is an important indicator for measuring sector rotation and capital flows in the crypto market.

Q: How large is BlackRock’s $209 million Bitcoin purchase?

A: $209 million is equivalent to about 3,290 BTC. On July 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bought about 4,173 BTC, roughly equal to nearly 9 days of newly mined Bitcoin supply. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for more than half of the total inflow on that day.

Q: What potential impact does the CLARITY Act have on Ethereum?

A: The CLARITY Act is designed to provide a clearer regulatory framework for crypto assets. If passed, it could provide regulatory certainty for Ethereum and other smart-contract platforms’ penetration into everyday finance. Prediction market data shows the probability of passage is around 50%.

Q: Does an increase in the ETH/BTC ratio mean investors should rotate from Bitcoin to Ethereum?

A: Short-term fluctuations in the ETH/BTC ratio reflect changes in relative strength, not absolute investment advice. Ethereum’s current rise is mainly based on policy expectations, while on-chain fundamentals (such as DeFi TVL and stablecoin supply) have not yet improved in sync. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Q: Are BlackRock’s Bitcoin purchases sustainable?

A: After 11 consecutive days of net selling, BlackRock switched to net buying. This inflection point has signal value. However, single-day data is not enough to confirm a trend reversal; the fund flows over the next few trading days will be key to determining whether this constitutes sustained buying.