July 8th $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:

Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day inflow of about $266 million, with BlackRock IBIT alone accounting for about $209 million, becoming the dominant force. This ended the continuous outflow pressure that had lasted for weeks/over 10 days (previously, weekly outflows exceeded $500 million, and cumulative pressure in June was huge).

CoinDesk and other analyses pointed out that US inflation expectations are strengthening, providing bullish support for BTC. BTC recorded its best weekly performance since March last week (weekly gain of nearly 7%).

🤯 Liquidity:

Spot ETF: Net inflow of $266M on July 6 (led by IBIT), following an inflow of $221M on July 2-3, marking a shift from the "painful outflow cycle" to a positive signal. Long-term holders' confidence remains high.

Derivatives market: Funding rates remain low positive (about 0.0065%/8 hours, annualized ~7%), leverage is not extremely crowded. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations accounted for over 95%, and combined with cumulative liquidations of over $800M in the past two days, a typical short-squeeze driven rebound has formed. Futures open interest (OI) has simultaneously increased to approximately $47B

🤯 Technicals:

Over the past two days, I have been mentioning that the resistance above is at 64400. Only if this level holds can the bulls continue. After multiple attempts, it has pulled back. Actually, what I have been emphasizing is that the four-hour level's auxiliary indicator needs to be repaired to return to the zero axis. Next, we need to watch whether 62800 can hold. If it cannot, it will still go back to around 61000.

In summary, the current position is going through a four-hour and one-hour level pullback. Intraday, it will mainly be oscillating and stepping back.