#加密市场观察 Bitcoin rebounds to $64k, Fed rate hike expectations suddenly drop?

#加密市场观察 Bitcoin rebounds to $64k, Fed rate hike expectations plunge?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not announce a rate cut. When discussing inflation, he said that inflation expectations and inflation risks have declined over the past few weeks. He also reiterated that the Fed will hold to its 2% inflation target. The latter part is not dovish, but the market took the former part first. Bitcoin quickly rebounded from its low, approaching $60k again. Subsequently, U.S. employment data weakened, rate hike expectations continued to cool, and the market moved from "repair" to "relay."

Over the past few weeks, the market's biggest fear was that the Fed would keep interest rates high, or even raise tightening expectations again. For Bitcoin, this is not an abstract macro judgment. The tougher the rate expectations, the narrower the valuation space for risk assets, and the easier it is for leveraged positions to be wiped out first.

After Warsh downplayed inflation risks, the market first repriced "rate hike pressure." After weak employment data, this direction was pushed further. Bitcoin returned from around $57,742 to above $60k. The price move appears fast, but essentially the market is unwinding the previous panic trade.

On Deribit, traders concentrated on buying $50k put options. Gold perpetual futures open interest hit a new high. A death cross appeared on the technicals. These signals combined indicate that the market is not simply bearish, but buying insurance against a decline.

This is different from a normal pullback. In a normal pullback, sellers just want to exit. In a panic defense, traders simultaneously buy puts, buy safe-haven assets, and reduce leverage. When the price hits a key level, liquidation amplifies volatility.

CoinGlass data shows that when Bitcoin fell to around $57.7k, it triggered approximately $395 million in liquidations. This figure indicates that the price drop was not just driven by selling, but by forced exits of leveraged positions. After forced exits, the market tends to rebound more easily. The reason is straightforward. The previous decline cleared some long leverage and pushed defensive sentiment to a high level. When macro news marginally loosens, the price only needs to return near a key level to make shorts nervous. Short covering is essentially buying. The higher the price goes, the more bearish positions are forced to unwind. That is the second layer of thrust. When Ethereum and Solana led the rally, Bitcoin once approached $62k, and approximately $281 million in short bets were liquidated. It is not new conviction, but a counterforce from position structure.

Therefore, this rebound cannot be attributed solely to Warsh's words. A more accurate breakdown is three phases.

First, inflation risks were downplayed, and market concerns about the Fed's path eased.

Second, employment data weakened, further lowering rate hike expectations.

Third, short positions were forced to cover, pushing spot prices higher faster. If you only look at the first phase, the market is easily interpreted as "macro bullish." If you only look at the third phase, you might mistake it for a purely technical bounce. The real structure is that both happened in the same time period. Macro gave the reason for price to go up, and positioning gave the speed. The reaction of altcoins also shows this is not a single-currency market. After Bitcoin reclaimed $60k, Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rose in sync. Then Ethereum led the rally among major cryptocurrencies, gaining about 12% over the past week. When funds start spilling over from Bitcoin to Ethereum and Solana, the market is no longer just trading "whether Bitcoin can hold." The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index rose to 52/100, the highest in three months. This level is subtle. It just crossed the midline, indicating that risk appetite has indeed returned, but it hasn't reached the stage of full altcoin euphoria. This is the first thing to note.

Altcoin sentiment warming up does not mean altcoin season is confirmed. A true altcoin season usually requires broader capital diffusion. Now it's more like after Bitcoin stopped falling, the market first bought back liquid large-cap tokens. Ethereum and Solana outperformed, while some small caps remain weak. This divergence itself is a signal.

Second, the options market does not fully believe in the rebound. The put/call skew for BTC and ETH still shows traders are willing to pay higher prices for downside protection. Prices have rebounded, but insurance is still not cheap. This detail is colder than spot prices. If traders truly believed the trend had reversed, put premiums would typically fall faster. The current state is more like the spot market pulled prices back first, while the derivatives market hasn't put away its umbrella.

Third, short squeezes cannot last indefinitely. Short covering brings buying, but that buying is one-off. It can push prices out of crowded lows, but cannot sustain an entire trend alone. Once liquidations are over, the market needs new spot buying to take over. So what really matters next is not whether Bitcoin has held a certain round number, but who is still buying after it holds. Spot ETFs, stablecoin liquidity, and the follow-through strength of Ethereum and Solana will be more informative than a single day's gain.

Fourth, macro variables are still the same knife. This rally benefited from declining inflation risks and weakening employment. On the flip side, if subsequent data points to inflation stickiness again, or Fed rhetoric turns hawkish again, the market will also price in the opposite direction using the same logic.

Bitcoin is not an asset divorced from macro; it just reacts faster to changes in macro expectations. Prices have bounced out of excessive defense, but true confirmation requires waiting for the options market to be willing to remove insurance.