Has $ETH Bottomed? 👇

I've been comparing the daily ETH chart to Chris Lori's "Characteristics of a Price Swing" model, and the similarities are surprisingly compelling.
While no two market cycles will ever look identical, I find this framework to be one of the best ways to understand how markets develop, mature, and eventually reverse. Rather than viewing price as a series of random moves, trends often progress through recognisable phases of accumulation, expansion, distribution, and ultimately back into accumulation.
The model identifies several key stages:
• Liquidity Base – Smart money accumulates while volatility contracts.
• Point of Release (PoR) – Price breaks free from the base, often triggering an impulsive directional move.
• Skinny Leg – A low-resistance advance where price moves quickly with little opposition.
• Price Pause – The market pauses to rebalance order flow before deciding its next move.
• Continuation Leg – Momentum returns as buyers regain control.
• Consolidation Apex – Volatility compresses as buying and selling reach equilibrium near the highs.
• Retest High/Low – A final test of the extremes before commitment.
• Apex Base Break – The first meaningful shift in market structure as the trend begins to weaken.
• Shelf Retest – Previous support is revisited and rejected as new resistance.
• Gap Slip – Price moves rapidly through an area of low acceptance, accelerating the decline.
• Clean Breaking Point – A decisive loss of key support confirms the change in order flow.
• Liquidity Base – Selling pressure begins to exhaust itself as a new accumulation range begins to form.
When comparing Ethereum's current market structure to this framework, the alignment is difficult to ignore. Although this doesn't guarantee a bottom is in place, it does suggest ETH could be in the early stages of completing a full market cycle.
For me, the most important level is the Point of Release (PoR) around $1.5k. If ETH continues to hold this area and build acceptance above it, it would strengthen the case that the market is transitioning from a prolonged distribution phase into a new accumulation phase. Conversely, losing this level would weaken the thesis and suggest the market may still need additional time to complete its cycle.
The key takeaway isn't to memorise each label it's to understand how auction market behaviour evolves. Markets move through recurring phases as buyers and sellers exchange control, and recognising those transitions can provide valuable context for where price may be within the broader cycle.
This isn't a predictive model, nor should it be used in isolation. It's simply a framework that helps identify high-probability shifts in market structure when multiple characteristics begin to align.
If the current Liquidity Base and PoR continue to hold, there's a reasonable case that ETH may have already established its cyclical low. Time will ultimately decide whether this interpretation proves correct.