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War stocks are pushing higher as geopolitical tensions escalate once again, while $OIL continues to climb towards a key weekly resistance level.
Is this all leading towards a possible TACO moment from now into the weekend, potentially easing tensions and triggering a reversal in the current energy sector.
Just something I am watching.

$BTC – Market Update
What a change in momentum. Bitcoin was finally showing signs of strength after reclaiming the H4 200 MA and the POC, and I was expecting the previous swing highs to be the next area of interest.
However, the market had other ideas. Price faced a sharp rejection from the Value Area Highs, followed by a lack of any meaningful recovery around the POC and H4 200 MA. This is a clear sign that sellers remain in control for now.
Attention now turns to the $81.2K–$81.8K zone, which aligns with the Value Area Lows and range lows. I’ll be watching closely for a potential bounce from

$BTC – Price is reclaiming the key H4 200 moving average, but is now compressed between this level and the POC, which continues to act as a significant resistance zone.
As I’ve highlighted in recent updates, a successful reclaim of both levels could provide some much-needed short-term relief across BTC and the altcoin market, with the previous swing highs likely to come back into play.
83.4K–83.9K is the key resistance zones to reclaim and hold if bullish momentum is to continue. Until then, confirmation is still needed.

$BTC Update
Price looks set to make another attempt at the H4 200 MA.
As long as we remain below this level and continue consolidating around the range lows, I’d expect short-term bearish price action to persist.
However, a reclaim of the H4 200 MA, followed by acceptance above it, could be the catalyst for a broader relief move across the market. If we can also reclaim the POC, I’d expect momentum to build, opening the door for a retest of the previous swing highs.
These are my straightforward, realistic thoughts on lower-timeframe Bitcoin. For now, the H4 200 MA remains the key level to watc

$PUMP Update
A strong 30% impulse move from the $0.00386 support level, with price now trading back above two key levels: the Daily 50 MA and the $0.00465 S/R level.
Frustratingly, I was very close to pulling the trigger on the support bounce, but with it being Sunday night, I decided to hold off.
If we can confirm a reclaim of both the Daily 50 MA and the $0.00465 S/R level, I’ll be looking for an opportunity to re-enter this trade.
I’ll keep you updated as the setup develops.

Although I’ve remained cautious on $BTC since losing the H4 200 MA and hovering around the range lows, there are a couple of charts I’m finding increasingly difficult to ignore, particularly given the confluence between them.
First, $USDT.
We’re currently trading into a major weekly resistance level. A rejection here could potentially form a lower high, keeping the bearish market structure intact. This would be a constructive development for risk assets and could provide some much-needed relief for the market.
Second, #TOTAL3.
As I’ve already covered, we’ve recently seen a significant bullish

Such a strong impulse here on $BTC but I won’t be getting excited until we get back above and reclaim this 200 moving average. This is the current lower timeframe line in the sand for me.

Such a strong impulse here on $BTC but I won’t be getting excited until we get back above and reclaim this 200 moving average. This is the current lower time line in the sand for me.

$SOL
In hindsight, I should have been paying closer attention to SOL. The initial signs of rejection on the weekly timeframe around $122–$124.50 presented a solid potential swing-short opportunity.
Price is now approaching its first meaningful support retest since those highs, with the weekly 12/21 EMAs in focus. Ideally, bulls want to see these levels hold and establish a potential higher low. A loss of this support could begin to compromise the current bullish structure.
If the EMAs fail to hold, I’d be watching $85–$92 as a potential buy zone, with a deeper retracement towards $74 also on t

$BTC
There is a lot of panic across the timeline, and I understand why. We are approaching our first daily close below the current range lows since September, alongside the first daily close below the D1 50 MA since August.
However, this does not invalidate the higher-timeframe bullish structure. It simply opens up the possibility that price is rotating back into the previous range.
If you have managed risk effectively, taken profits along the way, and avoided chasing the highs, this pullback could present some excellent opportunities.

$BTC
My higher-timeframe outlook remains unchanged. Market structure is still bullish, but I do have some concerns regarding short-term price action.
Although we are currently holding the range lows and value area, I’m not liking the H4 acceptance below the 200 MA. The amount of time we’re spending around these lows without any meaningful buying pressure is also a concern. We need to see stronger momentum develop if price is going to rotate back towards the range highs.
There is significant market inefficiency below the range lows, which could see price bleed back towards the mid-$70Ks to fill

$ALTS / #TOTAL3
This is the first meaningful retest of the weekly 12/21 EMA since the bullish crossover, which signalled a shift in higher-timeframe momentum.
Price is currently trading below support, which is not ideal. However, the key factor now is whether the 12/21 EMA can hold as support and preserve the bullish higher-timeframe structure, keeping the potential for further upside continuation intact.

$BTC -
Do not let the bears get into your head over the current price action. This consolidation was always a possibility, and I’ve discussed this scenario numerous times.
Look back at the price action following our previous reclaim of the 50W MA. We spent 224 days consolidating in a range before the next leg higher. I know that’s not what the bulls want to hear, as a similar timeline would take us into April 2027. The exact timeframe doesn’t need to repeat, but the point remains: these consolidation phases can take far longer than most people expect.
My broader view remains that prices will

Hearing that the CPI numbers have come in unfavourably. It is what it is. For me, the key focus remains $BTC holding 81.2K.
The H4 200 MA is now aligning with the VAL, making 82.3K an increasingly important level. However, the range lows remain the key level from a broader structural perspective. Losing the H4 200 MA would weaken the case for those range lows holding as support.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, nothing has changed. Market structure continues to support the spot and chill approach, and I’ll be sure to alert everyone if that outlook changes.
What I particularly like about th

$PONS
After a brutal downtrend, Pons appears to be attempting a shift in market structure. Price has broken above the descending trendline and reclaimed the H4 12/21 EMAs, which is an encouraging initial development.
I’ll be watching closely for further confirmation of a breakout before considering opportunities on Robinhood Chain again.
The key question is whether this move develops into a sustained structural shift or gets faded, with price falling back below these reclaimed levels.
Confirmation is key. No need to anticipate the move before the chart gives us a clear signal.

Good morning. $BTC
The 50 MA has secured the reclaim first, with an H4 close and subsequent retest above. However, the POC continues to act as significant resistance, leaving price tightly compressed between these two key levels.
We also have CPI data due today, which could introduce further volatility.
For now, $83.9K is the key level to reclaim to strengthen the bullish case and provide confirmation of upside continuation.

$BTC An interesting battle between the moving averages. Which one gives way first? Price is now being compressed between the two.
The H4 200 MA could be the level that triggers fresh local lows if lost, while reclaiming the H4 50 MA could open the door to fresh local highs.
Given the broader higher-timeframe structural shift, I’d favour a reclaim of the 50 MA.
However, both moving averages have been respected as clear areas of support and resistance, making this a key battle to watch.