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$BTC is now in an extremely vulnerable position.
Historically, Bitcoin has never reclaimed the 50W MA following a bear market without going on to establish new all-time highs. A sustained loss of this level would, in my opinion, have significant implications for the broader crypto market.
It would substantially increase the probability of new lows in 2027. For altcoins, the stakes are arguably even higher. Despite the recent relief rallies, many have already surrendered those gains and are now trading around major higher-timeframe support levels. A further deterioration in Bitcoin’s market str
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$PUMP & $STONK
Both approaching critical support levels. This is a defining moment for both charts.
If you're looking to buy these levels, that's perfectly fine, but risk management is essential. Be prepared to cut the position quickly if support fails.
A loss of support on $PUMP could expose price to another 25% downside before reaching any meaningful support. $STONK is potentially even more vulnerable, with significant market inefficiencies below current price that could leave the door open to a further 50% downside.
These are high-risk levels. The potential upside is there, but protecting y
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$BTC D1 / W1 / H4
We’ve seen a strong reaction from the range lows, with price now trading just above the EMA bands across the major timeframes. However, the 81.2K range highs are proving to be a key area of resistance, with price currently struggling to reclaim them.
For bulls to maintain control and prevent a rotation back towards the range lows, we need to see the EMA bands hold on any retest, followed by a successful reclaim of the range highs.
Personally, I’m not interested in looking for shorts whilst price continues to trade above the key EMA levels. Despite the rejection at range highs
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$BTC
We went long inside the telegram.
Full trade breakdown and analysis with a solid reaction from our so far entry.
Join free today:
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$BTC
Bears calling for significantly lower prices whilst we’re trading above the 50W MA + weekly bullish EMA crossovers is quite something. Some of the downside targets being thrown around seem to be little more than speculation, with very little consideration for current market structure.
Our approach has always been to trade level to level. Whilst BTC continues to hold above significant higher-timeframe levels, particularly whilst we’re sitting at range lows, I find it difficult to justify calling for further downside.
That doesn’t mean downside is off the table. If we begin to gain acceptan
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$BTC
Another weekly close above both the 50-week moving average and range lows. ✔️
As we head into the first Monday of a new month, the bulls have two clear objectives: defend the range lows and maintain support above the 50-week moving average.
On the daily timeframe, I’d like to see price reclaim the EMA bands, with those averages beginning to slope back towards the upside, while continuing to consolidate within the current range.
Provided Monday’s open doesn’t trigger another significant sell-off and we remain above these key higher-timeframe levels, I believe the path forward should be rel
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New Youtube Video is LIVE!!
In this one we go over my lines in the sand for $BTC and #TOTAL2 + some of the best Alts I believe you need exposure to.
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Over the last 1,036 days, #TOTAL2 has recorded four bullish weekly 12/21 EMA crossovers. On the previous three occasions, each crossover was followed by a move to new highs. Could the fourth, and most recent, crossover produce the same outcome?
Beyond that, we are now approaching a significant higher-timeframe support retest: the weekly 200 EMA. This is a key level where we need to see buyers step in and defend the bullish structure.
For bullish momentum to remain intact, I also want to see price reclaim the weekly 12/21 EMAs and, crucially, see both averages maintain an upward trajectory.
The
$BTC
We are now approaching the first retest of the 50-week moving average since reclaiming it back in September.
This is my line in the sand.
As long as we continue to hold above this level, I view bearish headlines and short-term volatility as noise, with any dips presenting potential buying opportunities. However, a loss of this level would be a significant shift in my outlook. That is when I would begin considering de-risking some of my spot positions and looking for potential swing-short opportunities.
Everything we are currently seeing in terms of price action was both expected and antic
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My Current Market Positioning
I’m comfortable holding predominantly spot positions across mid-caps and select micro-caps, while keeping a portion of my portfolio in stables to deploy at lower prices if the opportunity presents itself.
I’m currently running zero leverage, and that has been the case since we longed $BTC at 59K and reclaimed the weekly 50 MA. I have no intention of taking unnecessary risks with leverage in this market.
Interestingly, the overwhelming consensus calling for further downside is making me increasingly bullish. As that thesis becomes more crowded, it reminds me of 202
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$BTC D1 / H4
Not much has changed, with price continuing to trade within a range-bound environment.
Yesterday, we saw another attempt to reclaim the previous range, which was ultimately rejected. Bears remain in control of the lower timeframes while price continues to trade below 81.2K.
On the H4, bulls are doing a good job defending the 79.5K–80K region. They need to hold this area to prevent price from testing the range lows around 76K–77K a move that would likely bring further downside pressure across the market.
Key levels I’m watching:
Reclaim 81.2K: A successful reclaim and acceptance ba
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Looking to buy the dips on altcoins amid the current market volatility?
Be sure to check out my latest YouTube video, where I break down buy targets and invalidation levels for 10 of the strongest-performing altcoins recently.
Preparation is key. Know your levels, manage your risk, and avoid chasing price.
$BTC
Did we really expect the start of this bull cycle to be a straightforward, one-way move to the upside?
I’m sharing a fractal from the previous cycle, highlighting the period when Bitcoin first closed above the 50-week MA following the bear market. As you can see, price didn’t immediately take off. Instead, we entered an extended period of consolidation before the eventual breakout.
The similarities with current price action are hard to ignore.
Don’t let bearish sentiment cloud your judgement or abandon your thesis simply because price is pulling back. Volatility, uncertainty and extended
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I think we’re reaching a point where downside expectations are becoming increasingly overcrowded. Those waiting for the perfect entry at $76K BTC or sub-$2K ETH may find themselves caught off guard if the market reverses before reaching those levels.
Personally, I’m at the stage where I’m no longer willing to let short-term market manipulation and volatility shake me out of a thesis I still believe in, only to watch it play out as anticipated.
I’m comfortable holding my current positions and gradually adding to them as price moves lower, provided the broader thesis remains intact. I don’t need
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$ALTS
I’d like to see #TOTAL3 find support and bounce from these EMA bands. This is a critical support zone, and holding these levels is essential to preserving the current bullish market structure.
A sustained loss of this support would weaken the bullish outlook, so this is a key area to monitor closely.
$BTC
Bulls continue to defend daily closes above $81.2K, keeping price within the current range. A loss of this level would open the door to a move back into the previous range, where significant market inefficiencies remain below.
As long as we continue to hold this level, I’m comfortable maintaining my current spot positions while actively looking for new opportunities. However, a confirmed loss of $81.2K would be the point where I’d begin to adopt a more cautious approach.
The higher-timeframe structure still looks constructive and bullish, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore short-term
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War stocks are pushing higher as geopolitical tensions escalate once again, while $OIL continues to climb towards a key weekly resistance level.
Is this all leading towards a possible TACO moment from now into the weekend, potentially easing tensions and triggering a reversal in the current energy sector.
Just something I am watching.
$BTC – Market Update
What a change in momentum. Bitcoin was finally showing signs of strength after reclaiming the H4 200 MA and the POC, and I was expecting the previous swing highs to be the next area of interest.
However, the market had other ideas. Price faced a sharp rejection from the Value Area Highs, followed by a lack of any meaningful recovery around the POC and H4 200 MA. This is a clear sign that sellers remain in control for now.
Attention now turns to the $81.2K–$81.8K zone, which aligns with the Value Area Lows and range lows. I’ll be watching closely for a potential bounce from
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$BTC – Price is reclaiming the key H4 200 moving average, but is now compressed between this level and the POC, which continues to act as a significant resistance zone.
As I’ve highlighted in recent updates, a successful reclaim of both levels could provide some much-needed short-term relief across BTC and the altcoin market, with the previous swing highs likely to come back into play.
83.4K–83.9K is the key resistance zones to reclaim and hold if bullish momentum is to continue. Until then, confirmation is still needed.
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