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$ALTS / #TOTAL3
This is the first meaningful retest of the weekly 12/21 EMA since the bullish crossover, which signalled a shift in higher-timeframe momentum.
Price is currently trading below support, which is not ideal. However, the key factor now is whether the 12/21 EMA can hold as support and preserve the bullish higher-timeframe structure, keeping the potential for further upside continuation intact.
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$BTC -
Do not let the bears get into your head over the current price action. This consolidation was always a possibility, and I’ve discussed this scenario numerous times.
Look back at the price action following our previous reclaim of the 50W MA. We spent 224 days consolidating in a range before the next leg higher. I know that’s not what the bulls want to hear, as a similar timeline would take us into April 2027. The exact timeframe doesn’t need to repeat, but the point remains: these consolidation phases can take far longer than most people expect.
My broader view remains that prices will
BTC+1.09%
Hearing that the CPI numbers have come in unfavourably. It is what it is. For me, the key focus remains $BTC holding 81.2K.
The H4 200 MA is now aligning with the VAL, making 82.3K an increasingly important level. However, the range lows remain the key level from a broader structural perspective. Losing the H4 200 MA would weaken the case for those range lows holding as support.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, nothing has changed. Market structure continues to support the spot and chill approach, and I’ll be sure to alert everyone if that outlook changes.
What I particularly like about th
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BTC+1.09%
$PONS
After a brutal downtrend, Pons appears to be attempting a shift in market structure. Price has broken above the descending trendline and reclaimed the H4 12/21 EMAs, which is an encouraging initial development.
I’ll be watching closely for further confirmation of a breakout before considering opportunities on Robinhood Chain again.
The key question is whether this move develops into a sustained structural shift or gets faded, with price falling back below these reclaimed levels.
Confirmation is key. No need to anticipate the move before the chart gives us a clear signal.
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PONS+10.96%
Good morning. $BTC
The 50 MA has secured the reclaim first, with an H4 close and subsequent retest above. However, the POC continues to act as significant resistance, leaving price tightly compressed between these two key levels.
We also have CPI data due today, which could introduce further volatility.
For now, $83.9K is the key level to reclaim to strengthen the bullish case and provide confirmation of upside continuation.
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BTC+1.09%
$BTC An interesting battle between the moving averages. Which one gives way first? Price is now being compressed between the two.
The H4 200 MA could be the level that triggers fresh local lows if lost, while reclaiming the H4 50 MA could open the door to fresh local highs.
Given the broader higher-timeframe structural shift, I’d favour a reclaim of the 50 MA.
However, both moving averages have been respected as clear areas of support and resistance, making this a key battle to watch.
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BTC+1.09%
$PUMP
Our initial entry was around $0.003379, supported by multiple confluences, including a key support level and the Daily 50 MA.
We could be approaching a similar setup, with the Daily 50 MA now sitting just above the $0.0046 support zone as well as the 0.618 fib.
I’m watching this area closely for a potential buy trigger before considering another entry.
PUMP+5.72%
It feels as though the crypto market is already shifting into risk-off mode, despite several higher-timeframe confluences suggesting a potential shift in market structure.
$ALTS / #TOTAL3 is now trading into support. Under normal circumstances, this would be an area to consider buying the dip, but I’m struggling to find the conviction or see any clear evidence of buyers stepping in.
Is this simply part of the psychological game the market plays? Bull markets are rarely straightforward. They test your conviction, create uncertainty and often force you to question your own bias.
That said, if $7
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$BTC
Range lows are continuing to provide support, while the POC remains a significant resistance level.
Ideally, we need to reclaim the POC and establish acceptance above it. Continued acceptance below this level would increase the probability of further downside.
BTC+1.09%
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$BTC Market Update
BTC has reclaimed the value area following the flush to the range lows. The POC remains a key resistance for now, but price is holding above the 12/21 EMAs, which have just crossed bullish again on the H4.
We’re seeing some tight compression between the POC overhead and the EMAs below. The next move should help determine whether we have the momentum to push higher.
With US markets closed today, be mindful of potentially thinner liquidity and how that may impact lower-timeframe price action.
What I’m watching:
Bullish: A reclaim of the POC would strengthen the case for anothe
BTC+1.09%
On a serious note, yesterday’s dump on $BTC shouldn’t have caught as many people off guard as it did.
We’re still ranging, and volatility within a range is to be expected. The key is to remain focused on the levels that matter rather than reacting emotionally to every move.
The real concern would be losing 81.2K and finding acceptance back inside the previous range. That would open the door to a move towards the range lows around 76.5K.
Until then, patience and level-to-level trading remain key.
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BTC+1.09%
$BTC
Price looks to be beginning to find acceptance below the value area.
If this continues, my next downside targets for a potential bounce sit around 81.2K–81.6K. This zone aligns with the higher-timeframe range lows and the H4 200 MA, which has continued to act as support throughout this upside move.
For now, the key level to reclaim is the 82.8K area lows. Unless we can quickly reclaim and hold above this level, I’ll be watching the 81.2K–81.6K region for the next potential reaction.
BTC+1.09%
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$ETH is now trading directly into the H4 200 MA, a crucial support level to hold.
If we lose this level and begin accepting below it, I’d expect price to move back into the previous range, with the $2,525–$2,360 area becoming the key downside zone to watch.
For now, the H4 200 MA remains the key level.
ETH+3.42%
I think $ALTS could be gearing up for the next leg higher.
Looking at $OTHERS, the price action remains clean. Since reclaiming the key 182.5B support/resistance level, we have consistently seen periods of consolidation followed by expansion, and this pattern has continued throughout the broader move higher.
We are now back in a consolidation phase, which could be setting the stage for another expansion and the next leg higher.
However, when we zoom out to the weekly timeframe, we can see that price is now approaching a significant higher-timeframe resistance level.
If the current consolidatio