GB

$USDT.D trading straight into higher time frame support + D3 200 EMA.
Are we going to see it hold and bounce or will bulls remain in control.
With $BTC and most $ALTS trading straight into resistance and USDT dominance into support ..

$BTC
It still baffles me how anyone can look at this chart and conclude that the low is in and we’re about to enter an “up only” phase.
The broader market structure simply doesn’t support that conclusion yet.
We can start discussing a potential structural shift once we see clear acceptance above 82.8K. Until then, I think it’s premature to assume the downside is over.

This weekly chart looks far from pleasant, but the bottom is far closer than the top, so maybe it could be worth going through that uncomfortable feeling and consider a buy.
11 straight red weekly candles into the pico lows right before the overall market is going to begin shifting towards the upside.
I present you $RENDERBTC

I don’t want to kill the mood here on $BTC but we’re trading straight into the Monthly 12/21 EMA resistance.
Things could be starting to look interesting on the lower time frame but the bigger picture shows nothing has really changed.
Bearish crossover + trading below those levels just like we were this exact moment last bear cycle.
Everything will change once we reclaim 76/77 on the monthly.

$BTC
Lots of heavy resistance above: D1 200 EMA + VAH. Trump hype often gets faded within the next days.
Nothing has changed from my original plan despite this random pump in August from DT. In fact, everything is going to plan and following fractal from last mid-terms which we expected. The pump also ended end of August / start of September then eventually finding a bottom in November, which was exact a year from the top. Will we follow the same path this cycle ..

$ALTS selling off aggressively and $BTC hasn’t even traded back down to the VAL yet since falling back under the POC and D1 12/21EMA.
Still waiting for 1700’s on $ETH before loading spot .⏳
For Alts I think it’ll be more of a waiting game time wise rather than price.

$ETH BTC appears to be positioning for a potentially explosive upside move. The W1 50EMA will give us the confirmation just like it did in 2020/21. We are currently following a similar fractal.
Its a respectable SR level that once reclaimed could give us a very good $ETH upside continuation setup.
0.03039 is the level to watch.

I believe the Ethereum bottom is likely in.
My reasoning isn’t based on one indicator it’s the confluence of multiple factors:
• Chris Lori’s 13 Characteristics of a Price Swing are largely complete.
• June printed what I believe is the Point of Release (PoR).
• Market structure is beginning to shift in favour of the bulls.
• The June low also aligns with historical seasonality.
During the last mid-term election year (2022), #Ethereum also bottomed in June before beginning its next major trend higher. This year we’ve once again printed a significant low in June, adding another layer of conflue

$BTC
64k is becoming an increasingly important level for confirming trend continuation.
This area has multiple forms of confluence:
-Previous breakout level
-Point of Control (POC)
-Daily 12/21 EMAs
-Just above the developing monthly VWAP
If the lower timeframes can successfully retest this region and continue to find acceptance above it, it could provide a high-probability long opportunity for continuation towards the Value Area High (VAH) at 73.2k, which remains the next major higher-timeframe resistance.

$OTHERSBTC has continued to respect this fractal remarkably well, from the Fed officially ending QT in 2019 through to the current cycle in 2025.
What’s interesting isn’t that the charts look similar, it’s where they sit in the liquidity cycle. In both cases, the Fed ended QT around the time $OTHERSBTC began carving out a major low. That doesn’t mean altcoins immediately outperformed Bitcoin. In fact, they didn’t.
Historically, $ALTS didn’t begin their real period of outperformance until roughly 500 days after QT ended. I’m not expecting history to repeat tick for tick, but if this cycle follo

This week will consist of patiently waiting for that $BTC VAL retest before we start looking at spot buys on particular $ALTS if we get a bullish response.

bitcoin:native
15 hours remain until the weekly close, and at present, #Bitcoin is on track to close below the weekly 200 moving average.
I'm not suggesting that this confirms an immediate downside move, but it certainly doesn't provide a compelling case for significantly higher prices in the near term.
That said, I still believe the current market structure is closely following the 2022 fractal. If that comparison continues to hold, we could see one of two scenarios: a move to fresh lows before another relief rally, or a period of consolidation around current levels before rotating back tow

$BTC looks like the VAL is going to come next around 61k after failing to hold the POC and monthly developing VWAP support we’ve held throughout this upside move from the start of the month.

I think a lot of people will lose money by either being too patient or too impatient while following bottom callers. The reality is that nobody knows exactly where the market will bottom. We can analyse historical price action and identify high-probability areas, but ultimately we’re placing informed bets not making guarantees.
Rather than trying to catch the exact bottom, I prefer waiting for a confirmed shift in market structure. You may sacrifice some upside, but you gain much more confidence to increase risk once the bearish trend has broken and a bullish trend begins to establish itself.

$BTC If price is not going to range back down towards the VAL following the POC rejection, I would be looking for another potential wick below the developing monthly VWAP. This is a pattern we have seen play out multiple times during the current upside move.
If that setup does not materialise, the alternative scenario would simply be a move back towards 61K.