#ETH突破1700 Bitcoin and Ethereum July 5 Observation: Strong Oscillation in the Pressure Zone, Breakout or Pullback?

On July 5, 2026, Bitcoin consolidates around $63,000 and Ethereum around $1,775. BTC's 4H structure remains bullish, but the 1H has broken below MA5/MA10, facing short-term pullback pressure; ETH touched $1,807 during the session and then pulled back, with heavy resistance at the $1,800 round number. Combined with the current macroeconomic environment—the Fed's hawkish stance unchanged, spot ETFs recording the largest single-month net outflow in history in June, and Strategy's announcement of a $1.25 billion Bitcoin monetization plan—the market is in a fierce tug-of-war between the seasonal expectation of the "strongest July in history" and a structural bear market. This article provides a deep dive from three dimensions—technical analysis, on-chain data, and macro variables—offering traders actionable price ranges and strategy frameworks.

### I. Technical Analysis: Strong Oscillation Pattern, But Entering a Pressure Zone

**Bitcoin: 4H Bullish, 1H Weak, Key Level at $63,500**
Bitcoin is currently around $63,000, with a 24-hour high of approximately $63,460 and a low of about $62,330, showing a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Structurally, the 4H level remains bullish, with price trading above short-term moving averages, but the 1H level has already fallen back below MA5 and MA10—this is a warning sign indicating that short-term bullish momentum is weakening and the market may need a pullback. In terms of key levels, resistance above is concentrated in two zones: the first is $63,400–$63,500, an area that has been tested multiple times intraday without a breakout; the second is $63,800–$64,000, and if it can firmly hold and break through, it may open further upside. Support below is stepwise: first support at $62,850–$62,750, an area that has seen multiple intraday bids; if this level is lost, the next test will be stronger support at $62,500 and $62,300–$62,000. In terms of trading strategy, if Bitcoin can reclaim $63,200 and break above $63,500 with volume, short-term targets of $63,800–$64,000 are feasible; conversely, if it breaks below $62,850, it may pull back to the $62,750–$62,500 range for support. At current levels, blindly chasing longs is not advisable; a more rational approach is to wait for a confirmed breakout or a pullback bid.

**Ethereum: $1,800 Becomes an "Insurmountable Barrier," Breakout Requires BTC Cooperation**
Ethereum is currently around $1,775, having surged to $1,807 during the session before quickly falling back—this clearly shows strong selling pressure near the $1,800 round number. In terms of correlation, ETH's movement heavily depends on BTC—when BTC oscillates around $63,000, ETH finds it difficult to break out independently. ETH's resistance area above is also clear: the first level is $1,785–$1,790, an area that has been rejected multiple times intraday; the second level is $1,800–$1,810, where the intraday high of $1,807 fell exactly in this zone before rapidly retreating, indicating firm bearish strength in that area. For support below, the first level is $1,760–$1,765, the second is $1,750–$1,744, and if this range is lost, the next test will be stronger support at $1,720–$1,730. ETH's trading logic is similar to BTC: reclaiming $1,790 is the first step, and breaking $1,800 is the confirmation signal. Before BTC effectively breaks above $63,500, the probability of ETH breaking $1,800 independently is low. Breaking below $1,760–$1,765 may lead to a pullback to $1,750–$1,744 for support.

### II. Macro Perspective: Can the "Strongest July in History" Materialize Under Triple Pressure?

**Fed Remains Hawkish; July 30 Rate Decision a Key Watershed**
The current macro environment exerts significant pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintains a hawkish stance, with the market pricing an 80% probability of a rate hike in December. The Fed's rate decision on July 30 will be the core macro event of the month, and its outcome will directly impact the short-term direction of risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Grayscale previously warned that Bitcoin's bottom depends on the stalled CLARITY Act, the Fed's rate hike path, and the deleveraging process of digital asset trusts. Against the backdrop of tightening rate expectations, the appeal of crypto assets as high-risk investments is weakened.

**Spot ETFs Recorded the Largest Single-Month Net Outflow in History in June; Institutional Funds Continue to Exit**
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $4.06 billion in net outflows in June, setting a record for the largest single-month outflow, net selling about 71,600 BTC. This data indicates that institutional investors are exiting on a large scale, with market oversupply reaching approximately 77,000 BTC (around $4.4 billion). ETF outflows have been a major driver of the recent decline, and their persistence will directly determine whether the market can stage an effective rebound in July.

**Strategy's "Never Sell" Myth Shattered; Psychological Impact Far Outweighs Substance**
The strategic shift by the largest corporate holder, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has further shaken market confidence. On June 1, the company disclosed the sale of 32 BTC—its first sale since December 2022—and on June 29, it authorized a potential Bitcoin monetization plan of up to $1.25 billion to boost cash reserves, pay preferred stock dividends, and support stock buybacks. Although the actual impact of the 32 BTC sale is negligible, the first loosening of the "never sell" stance by a benchmark company has a psychological impact far greater than the actual selling pressure. Strategy's average cost basis is approximately $75,699, well above the current market price; if Bitcoin remains depressed, the company may face greater financial pressure, creating a vicious cycle of "price decline → forced reduction → further price decline."

### III. On-Chain Data: Whales Accumulating, but Old Holders Selling at a Loss

**Whales Accumulate Counter-Cyclically; Large Exchange Inflows Signal Hidden Risk**
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin's realized price is currently around $53,300–$53,400, with the current price only about 12% above it—not yet breaking below the long-term cost basis line. Since the end of the last bear market in 2022, BTC has never traded below this level. In late June, as Bitcoin's price fell toward $60k, whales withdrew more than 11,400 BTC (approximately $700 million) from exchanges to cold wallet storage. Wallets holding over 1,000 BTC continued to accumulate during the decline, indicating long-term capital's acceptance of current prices.

However, risk signals are also present: the exchange whale ratio has risen to a local high of about 0.69, indicating that the proportion of large inflows to exchanges is increasing, suggesting that some whales may be preparing to sell. This contradictory behavior of "accumulating on one hand, preparing to sell on the other" reflects deep internal divisions about the market's future direction.

**Loss-Making Supply Hits Record High; Long-Term Holder SOPR Drops Below 1**
Bitcoin's loss-making supply has risen to a record high of 10.83 million BTC, one of the deepest readings of this cycle. The long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen to 0.662, meaning that old holders have begun selling at a loss—this is a classic bear market bottom signal, but it also suggests the market may not have completed its final leg down. Historical experience shows that when the SOPR remains below 1, the market is often in a phase of panic selling. While this is typically a window for medium- to long-term accumulation, short-term downside risk remains.

### IV. July Seasonal Pattern: Hope and Trap Coexist

From a seasonal perspective, Bitcoin's July performance is historically the strongest summer month, with an average gain of 7.6% over the past 13 years and a median gain of 8.1%. This data offers a glimmer of hope for the current depressed market.

However, seasonal patterns are probabilities, not certainties. The market currently faces triple pressures—persistent ETF outflows, a failed halving cycle pattern (the April 2024 halving should have propelled a bull market 12–18 months later, but the first half of 2026 has seen a total decline of about 30%), and shrinking institutional buying—making the realization of the "strongest July in history" significantly more difficult.

Multiple institutions have vastly divergent price predictions for July and the second half of the year: Bitf sees a $40k range, 10x Research sees $55k, Jiang Zhuoer's mNAV model sees $42k–$44k, while TD Cowen sees around $100k by the end of 2026. The prediction range from $40k to $100k spans a full $60k, which itself indicates that the market is in a state of extreme uncertainty.

### V. Strategy Suggestions: Do Not Chase Longs; Wait for Confirmation or a Pullback

Combining technical, macro, and on-chain data, BTC/ETH is currently in a strong oscillation pattern but has entered a pressure zone, making it unsuitable for blindly chasing longs.

**For Bitcoin:**
Short-term focus on whether $63,200 can be reclaimed and whether $63,500 can be broken with volume. If a breakout is confirmed, targets are $63,800–$64,000; if $62,850 breaks, a pullback to $62,750–$62,500 for support. Medium-term, $62,000–$62,300 is a key support zone; if lost, further downside toward the $60,000 round number is possible.

**For Ethereum:**
Short-term focus on whether $1,790 can be reclaimed and whether $1,800 can be broken. Before BTC effectively breaks $63,500, the probability of ETH strengthening independently is low. Breaking below $1,760–$1,765 leads to a pullback to $1,750–$1,744.

**Overall Strategy:**
The current level is more suitable for standing aside, waiting for one of two scenarios: either following after a confirmed breakout, or bidding on pullbacks to key support levels. Until the macro environment shows clear signs of warming (e.g., dovish Fed signals, ETF capital re-entry, regulatory clarity), maintain a cautious position and avoid heavy bets on a single direction.

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*This article is for market analysis reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.*