In July 2026, Bitcoin at $62,470, ETH at $1,756, RSI collectively hovering near 30—do you think this is a bear market? No, this could be the final golden pit before a "true bull market" takes off.

I. The current market is like the calm before a storm
$BTC ‌Halved from the all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 to $62,000;
$ETH ‌Fell from the high to $1,756, with the lower Bollinger Band at $1,018.
Bitcoin declined for two consecutive quarters in the first half of the year—down 22% in Q1 and another 14% in Q2.
In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $4.5 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT facing net redemptions of $1.72 billion in a single week. Strategy reported a net loss of $12.54 billion in Q1, breaking its five-year "never sell Bitcoin" promise.

But undercurrents are already stirring.
On July 2, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of $221.7 million, ending a 10-day streak of capital outflows.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin whales have accumulated over 270k BTC cumulatively.
More critically—retail investors, mid-sized whales, and large entities have simultaneously shifted from net selling to net buying over the past 30 days.
On-chain analysis shows that when small holders and large whales buy at the same time, it historically often indicates a strong price bottom.

II. Three forces are about to resonate—this is the true engine of a bull market
The first force: Trump's "Crypto Super Kingdom" is taking shape
The person who controls the global economy is rewriting the rules of the crypto world with his own hands.
On July 1, Trump's annual financial disclosure report was released—a 927-page document showing that he earned over $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency in 2025.
Among that, $TRUMP ‌the meme coin alone brought in $635 million in royalties;
World Liberty Financial contributed over $500 million in token sale revenue.
Even more noteworthy—Trump himself holds over $50 million in Bitcoin in a cold wallet.
As a Galaxy Research analyst put it: "Everyone is talking about the president's crypto income, but no one is talking about the fact that the president keeps over $50 million in Bitcoin in a cold wallet."
A U.S. president who controls the global economy, holds a cold wallet, and whose family crypto business earned billions is pushing hard for crypto legislation—the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) has passed the House with 294 votes and the Senate Banking Committee with a 15:9 vote.
In addition, the ARMA (American Reserve Modernization Act) proposes to authorize the Treasury to acquire up to 200k Bitcoin per year for five years, with a final goal of accumulating 1 million—the U.S. government is already one of the largest Bitcoin holders in the world (approximately 328k BTC).
This is not a "policy tailwind"; this is top-level design.

The second force: Kevin Warsh's liquidity pivot
The market previously generally believed that Fed Chair Warsh favored low interest rates. Although he emphasized fighting inflation after taking office, on July 2 he indicated that inflation risks had "moderated." June U.S. employment data came in weaker than expected, further consolidating bets on looser policy.
Warsh himself holds between $100 million and $200 million in cryptocurrency. A Fed chair who holds a large amount of crypto assets choosing to ease liquidity when macro conditions allow—this is not a coincidence; it's logic.

The third force: The macro dividend from the end of the U.S.-Iran war
The fading of geopolitical risk premiums will directly drive funds from safe-haven assets to high-beta risk assets. Cryptocurrency is the biggest beneficiary.

III. RWA: A severely underestimated structural bull market engine
As of July 2026, the total value of on-chain RWAs has reached approximately $26.7 billion to $60 billion. $SOL ‌On-chain RWAs surged from under $500 million in mid-2025 to $3.62 billion. Ethereum on-chain RWAs stand at about $15.9 billion.
This is not speculation; it's a massive amount of traditional financial liquidity being brought on-chain. When institutions can invest in tokenized U.S. Treasuries, private credit, and real estate through compliant channels, the entire crypto market's valuation logic will be rewritten.

IV. Altcoin Season: This time it will really come
Why didn't it come before? Bitcoin's market cap dominance is still between 58% and 61%, and the altcoin season index is only 45-46, far below the 75 threshold needed to confirm an altcoin season.
Why will it come this time?
Bitcoin's market cap dominance is testing a key support level at 58.55%—a channel that has persisted for nearly 11 months since August 2025. Once a confirmed breakdown occurs, the target points to 55.5%, which many traders see as the starting point for a broad altcoin rotation. Analysis shows that the current altcoin structure is highly similar to the patterns before the 2017 and 2021 bull markets.
The historical script never changes: Bitcoin rises first → opens up the valuation ceiling → institutions take profits → capital spills over to Ethereum → spreads to altcoins across the board.

V. Timeline projection
Current bottom Q3 2026: ETF bleeding stops, whales bottom-fish, RSI oversold, multi-tier wallets accumulate simultaneously
Policy catalyst Q3-Q4 2026: CLARITY Act advances, ARMA bill, Warsh releases dovish signals
BTC main rally Q4 2026-Q1 2027: Institutional FOMO, massive ETF inflows, strategic reserve expectations
Altcoin season eruption Q1-Q2 2027: Bitcoin market cap dominance breaks below 55%, capital overflows comprehensively
The oversold conditions of July 2026 are not a continuation of the bear market—they are the final clean-up before the bull market starts. When the three forces of Warsh's liquidity pivot, Trump's crypto legislation landing, and the end of the U.S.-Iran war resonate, every oversold indicator will prove to be a golden pit.

The question is: When the person who controls the global economy has put $50 million in Bitcoin into a cold wallet, when the Fed chair himself is a crypto whale, when RWAs are bringing tens of trillions in traditional assets on-chain—
What are you still waiting for?
#非农爆冷打压加息预期
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on historical patterns, current data, and public information. It does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is influenced by multiple factors, and actual trends may deviate significantly. Please make rational judgments and bear your own risks.