#Today's Market Analysis

# Today's Market Analysis

Non-farm payroll aftermath fuels weekend rebound, Bitcoin holds $62k, Ethereum gains over 10% weekly On the morning of July 4, 2026, the cryptocurrency market continued its rebound momentum from this week. Bitcoin holds above $62k, trading in the $62,100-$62,800 range; Ethereum rises above $1,750, with a weekly gain of over 10%. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached approximately $174 million, with short positions being the main victim of this rebound at a ratio of about 4.3 times. This week, the crypto market experienced its strongest rebound since mid-June. The U.S. June non-farm payroll data came in significantly below expectations—adding only 57k jobs, less than half of the market's expected 113k—combined with oil prices dropping about 40% from their year-to-date highs, and Bitcoin spot ETFs ending a consecutive 10-day outflow to turn into net inflows. These three positive catalysts jointly pushed Bitcoin from a low of $57,000 at the start of the week to a sustained recovery, achieving four consecutive bullish days.

I. Market Overview: Bitcoin Holds $62k, Ethereum Recovers $1,750 As of 9:00 a.m. on July 4, according to CoinMarketCap data, the global crypto market cap is approximately $2.17 trillion, up 1.9% in 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in the $62,700-$62,800 range, up about 2.3% in 24 hours. Coin360 data shows BTC at $62,689 in the morning, up 1.84% daily. TokenPost data also shows BTC at $62,153, up 1.22%. Bitcoin has continued to rebound from its low of $57,000 this week, closing higher for four consecutive trading days. Ethereum (ETH) performed more strongly, trading in the $1,756-$1,760 range, up about 3.5%-3.6% in 24 hours. TokenPost data shows ETH at $1,744, up 2.69%. Ethereum's cumulative weekly gain has exceeded 10%. Altcoins are all rising. XRP is up 4.57%-4.92% to $1.13, leading the gains among major coins; Solana (SOL) is up about 2.24% to $82.42; BNB is up 2.81%-2.88% to $573; Dogecoin (DOGE) is up 4.35% to $0.07733; Hyperliquid (HYPE) is up about 6.56% to $70.87, the largest gain among major coins.

II. Core Market Drivers: Three Positive Catalysts in Resonance
First Catalyst: Non-Farm Payroll Data Disappoints, Rate Hike Expectations Fade Significantly
On July 2 (local time), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June non-farm payroll report—adding only 57k jobs, far below the market expectation of 113k, with April and May data revised downward simultaneously. After the data release, CME FedWatch showed that maintaining interest rates unchanged in July and September FOMC meetings is almost a certainty, and the probability of a rate hike in October fell sharply from over 60% earlier. In just a few days, the previously hawkish pricing by Fed officials that "rate hikes may be needed" has almost completely reversed. The fading of rate hike expectations directly suppressed the U.S. dollar, driving risk assets higher across the board. The cryptocurrency market reacted particularly strongly—gold rose over 2%, while the rebound in Bitcoin and Ethereum was even more pronounced.
Second Catalyst: Oil Prices Plunge 40%, Inflation Pressure Eases Significantly
The sustained decline in international oil prices provides additional support for risk assets. WTI crude is currently trading below $70 per barrel, down about 40% from the peak during the Iran-U.S. conflict. The sharp drop in energy prices has significantly eased inflation expectations, further reducing the urgency for the Fed to maintain tight policy.
Third Catalyst: ETFs Break 10-Day Outflow Streak, Institutional Capital Marginally Warms Up
On July 2 (Eastern Time), U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $221.7 million, ending a previous streak of 10 consecutive trading days of capital outflows. This is the highest single-day level since early May. Fidelity (FBTC) led with net inflows of approximately $166 million. However, BlackRock's IBIT still recorded net outflows of about $40.4 million during the same period, indicating that institutional capital attitudes are not yet fully aligned. For the entire month of June, Bitcoin ETFs had cumulative net outflows of up to $4.06 billion, the worst monthly performance since the product's launch. Whether this inflow can turn into a sustained trend still requires observing capital flows over the next few trading days.
Additionally, the CLARITY Act's target of being signed at the White House on July 4 provides room for imagination at the policy level. If signed, the bill would formally establish the commodity nature of major digital assets like XRP, eliminating long-term regulatory uncertainty.
📌 Today's Focus: July 4 is the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with New York financial markets closed. Reduced liquidity during the holiday may amplify price fluctuations, so investors should be mindful of market performance during this special time.

III. Liquidation Data: Shorts Suffer Heavy Losses at 4.3x Scale
The liquidation data over the past 24 hours clearly reflects the market pattern of a short squeeze. According to Coinglass data, total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours reached approximately $174 million, with long positions liquidated at about $71.14 million and short positions liquidated at about $103 million. Short position liquidations were about 4.3 times that of longs.
Specifically for the two leading coins: Ethereum: Short liquidations of $34.74 million, long liquidations of $13.75 million; Bitcoin: Short liquidations of $22.16 million, long liquidations of $9.76 million. A total of 65,864 investors worldwide were forcibly liquidated in the past 24 hours. Additionally, a well-known on-chain whale address "0x50b" fully closed its previously placed Ethereum short position on July 4, recording a loss of about $62k. This operation indirectly confirms that the strength of Ethereum's rebound exceeded the expectations of some short traders.

IV. Technical Analysis: $62,000 Becomes New Support, Bullish Pattern Emerges
Bitcoin (BTC)
Current Price: Approximately $62,100-$62,800
Core Support: $62,228 (short-term first support); $61,270 (secondary support)
Upper Resistance: $63,015 (recent first resistance); $64,427 (mid-term strong resistance)
Technical Pattern: Bitcoin has continued to rebound from its low of $57,000 at the start of the week, achieving four consecutive bullish days. The 4-hour chart shows a bullish alignment, with price effectively breaking above the $62,000 round number. RSI is in the neutral-to-strong zone, not yet overbought. However, some analysts point out that the current rebound is still a "technical pullback after bottom confirmation," and a trend reversal requires more confirmation.
Ethereum (ETH)
Current Price: Approximately $1,744-$1,760
Core Support: $1,700-$1,740 (buy-on-dip zone)
Upper Resistance: $1,770-$1,820 (short-term pressure zone)
Technical Pattern: Ethereum's 4-hour bullish trend continues, with EMA20/50 showing a bullish alignment and the Bollinger Band middle line at $1,638 and above, with an opening expansion. If it firmly holds above $1,820 with volume, the rebound's continuation will be further confirmed; if it falls below $1,750, it may retest the $1,650 level. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has rebounded during this rally, with signs of capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum emerging.

V. Market Sentiment: From "Extreme Fear" to "Fear"
The Fear and Greed Index reads 21-23 today, significantly recovering from the extreme low of around 15 last week, moving from the "Extreme Fear" zone to the "Fear" zone.
Positive Signals: Bitcoin has rebounded for four consecutive days, recovering over $5,000 from its low of $57,000; ETFs ended a 10-day outflow streak, recording $222 million in net inflows; weak non-farm data has significantly weakened rate hike expectations; oil prices are down about 40% from year-to-date highs, easing inflation pressure.
Risk Signals: June ETF cumulative net outflows reached $4.06 billion, a record high; BlackRock's IBIT continues to see outflows, with institutional attitudes not yet fully aligned; Bitcoin's daily exchange inflow once surged to over 50k BTC; the current rebound is characterized by some institutions as a "technical pullback" rather than a trend reversal.

VI. Outlook: Holiday Trading Thin, Focus on Next Week's Macro Signals
In the short term, July 4 is the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with New York financial markets closed. Reduced liquidity during the holiday may amplify price volatility, so attention should be paid to market performance during this special time. Bitcoin has found support above $62,000, with the $63,015-$64,427 zone forming short-term resistance. If it breaks above $63,000 with volume, the next target points to the $64,500 area; if it loses $62,000, it may retest support at $61,200.
Ethereum is likely to consolidate in the $1,700-$1,820 range in the short term. If it firmly holds above $1,820 with volume, the rebound may extend further to $1,850; if it falls below $1,750, it may retest the $1,650 level.

In the medium term, the core drivers of this rebound are the combination of "weak non-farm data + falling oil prices + ETF inflows turning positive." However, sustained ETF net inflows remain a necessary condition for confirming a trend reversal. Next week's June CPI data and Fed FOMC meeting minutes will be the next key variables determining whether the market is in a "bottom reversal" or just a "temporary breather."
Polymarket data shows that the market believes the probability of Bitcoin closing above $50,000 on July 4 is 99.95%—the market has reached a consensus on the short-term bottom, but there is considerable divergence on the height of the rebound. The early morning cryptocurrency market is in the rebound of the first weekend of July. Bitcoin is trading strongly in the $62,000-$63,000 range, Ethereum is above $1,750, with a weekly gain of over 10%. The unexpected weakness in non-farm data, the continued decline in oil prices, and the marginal warming of ETF capital—these three positive catalysts have injected long-awaited rebound momentum into the market.

$62,000 has become the most important short-term watershed—holding it maintains the rebound pattern, with an upside target of $63,000-$64,500; losing it may lead to a retest of $61,000 or lower. However, June's record $4.06 billion in ETF outflows, BlackRock's IBIT's continued withdrawals, and some institutions' judgment of a "technical pullback" rather than a "trend reversal" all remind investors: while the rapid rebound from the short squeeze is encouraging, trend confirmation requires more time and data verification. Before the release of July's CPI data and the FOMC meeting minutes, staying cautious and strictly managing positions remains a rational choice.