July 4 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis



🤯News:

US June non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations: only added 57,000 jobs (expected 113,000), with the prior month's figure sharply revised down by 74,000. This is interpreted by the market as a clear cooling of the labor market, greatly increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts/easing, which is bullish for non-yielding assets like BTC.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh (July 2) stated: "Inflation risks have declined," directly easing market concerns about "higher for longer" interest rates, driving a broad rally in risk assets, with BTC quickly surging over 4% in a single day.

Geopolitical easing: US-Iran negotiating representatives agreed to resume structured maritime security dialogue, alleviating concerns about oil supply disruptions, and risk appetite recovers.

🤯Fund flows:

Spot Bitcoin ETF: on July 2 recorded net inflows of approximately $221–$223 million (largest single-day inflow in 59 days), led by Fidelity FBTC (+$166 million), followed by ARKB, ending the pressure from a cumulative net outflow of approximately $2.7 billion over the previous 10 days. BlackRock IBIT had a small outflow but overall turned positive.

Leverage/On-chain: the price rebound triggered approximately $450 million in short liquidations, further amplifying upward momentum.

Overall, institutional funds' willingness to absorb at the 58k–60k area has increased, and the pause in ETF outflows is an important turning signal.

🤯Technicals:

This is a typical macro-positive-driven oversold rebound + short covering rally, not a trend reversal confirmation.

The current market has rebounded to the resistance level I provided, then pulled back. The current position is just a rebound after overselling. Pay attention to the weekend pullback. After the pullback, watch the support below to see if it can break through the 60900 level. If it does not break down, it will go up again for another retrace. So in summary, the day is still dominated by consolidation and consolidation pullbacks.

Support: 60900-60k
Resistance: 63000-64300
ETH2.87%
BTC2.01%
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