What’s Next for ETH

I. Overall Trend Judgment

1. Large Cycle (Daily): The mid-term bearish channel remains unbroken, and the ETH/BTC ratio continues to weaken. Capital is flowing toward BTC as a safe haven first. Ethereum’s rebounds are mostly technical repairs, with no bullish reversal signals.

2. Short Term (4H): A slight rebound occurred after an oversold condition, but the rebound volume remains insufficient, with dense selling pressure above. The trend is entirely correlated with BTC—if BTC weakens, ETH’s decline amplifies.

3. Two Scenarios:

- Bearish Baseline: The rebound faces resistance and pulls back, repeatedly testing the support zone below.

- Short-Term Repair: A breakout above the 1700 level with volume would open space for a phased rebound.

II. Resistance Levels (Top to Bottom, Gradual Selling Pressure Zones for Rebounds)

1. Short-Term First Resistance (Intraday Strong Selling Pressure): 1630–1650 USDT
Concentrated area of 4H MA20 and short-term trapped positions; rebounds here are highly likely to encounter resistance and fall back. This is the preferred range for shorting with light positions at highs.

2. Mid-Term Watershed Resistance: 1700 USDT
Key level at the daily MA20. Only if two consecutive 4H candles close above 1700 with volume can the mid-term downtrend be temporarily halted, with the rebound target moving up to 1780–1800. If it surges and then closes below 1700, the bearish trend continues.

3. Strong Resistance for Bullish Reversal: 1780–1800 USDT
The upper edge of the consolidation range over the past month. Only a sustained breakout above this range with volume would shift to a phased bullish market.

III. Support Levels (Near to Far, Buying Support Zones)

1. Intraday Short-Term Support: 1548–1560 USDT
A small range where recent declines have stopped and rebounded multiple times—first defense for short-term bulls. If held, the 1550–1650 range consolidation continues; if broken quickly, the next test is the 1500 level.

2. Mid-Term Core Strong Support: 1500–1505 USDT (Key)
60-day stage low, historically a dense bottom-fishing capital zone—the most important psychological support for this decline.

- Holding 1500: The wide-range consolidation pattern remains intact, suitable for betting on an oversold rebound.

- Effective Breakdown (4H close below 1500): Opens new downside space, with the next target at 1410–1430.

3. Extreme Downside Ultimate Support: 1410–1430 USDT
Dense bottom-fishing accumulation zone from the previous decline. This level will only be reached in the event of systemic panic in the broader market.

IV. Simple Trading Range Ideas

1. Range-Bound Market (Mainstream): 1550–1640—Sell High, Buy Low

- Go short near 1630–1650 resistance.

- Go long lightly near 1550 with a stop loss below 1545.

2. Breakout Tracking:

- Sustained close above 1700 with volume: Go long in the direction of the trend, target 1780.

- Breakdown below 1500: Go short in the direction of the trend, target 1430.