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#WeakNFPShakesRateHikeOdds
Weak NFP Shakes Rate Hike Odds: July Hike Off The Table
US June nonfarm payrolls printed just 57,000 vs 113,000 expected. Miss by 50 percent. April and May revised down 74,000 combined.
Key Data:
NFP: 57K actual vs 113K consensus
Unemployment: 4.2 percent but labor force participation dropped 0.3 points
Exits: 832,000 people left the workforce
Revisions: April May cut 74K
Market Reaction:
Rate Hike Odds: July hike probability collapsed to under 20 percent. First cut timing pushed from October to December.
DXY: Dollar index dumped nearly 40 points on weak jobs.
Gold: Surged over 2 percent as yields dropped.
Risk Assets: Crypto and equities bid on dovish pivot.
Take: Labor market cracking. Headline unemployment 4.2 percent looks strong but 832K workforce exit hides weakness. Fed now stuck. Inflation sticky, jobs breaking.
July hike dead. September 50/50. December first cut now base case.
DXY weakness = BTC ETH tailwind. Gold 2400+ next.
#WeakNFPShakesRateHikeOdds #NFP #FederalReserve #DXY