$ETH So Ethereum just broke above 1700 and honestly, it caught a lot of people off guard. The price action over the last 24 hours has been pretty wild. ETH dipped as low as 1596, then shot up to 1723, gaining nearly 6 percent in a single session . That is not a small move.

$ETH So Ethereum just broke above 1700 and honestly, it caught a lot of people off guard. The price action over the last 24 hours has been pretty wild. ETH dipped as low as 1596, then shot up to 1723, gaining nearly 6 percent in a single session . That is not a small move.

Now the question everyone is asking is whether this is the start of something bigger or just a dead cat bounce within a larger downtrend. The technical picture is kind of messy right now, so let me break it down the way I see it.

On the bullish side, the daily chart has actually reclaimed the 20 day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band, which are two levels that had been acting as resistance for weeks . The MACD also formed a golden cross on the daily, which is a pretty clear signal that bearish momentum is fading . And the RSI finally climbed back above 50, moving out of that weak territory it had been stuck in since June . Those are all legitimate improvements in the short term structure.

But here is where it gets tricky. The 4 hour RSI is sitting at 71.3 and the daily J value is up at 105.7, which is firmly overbought territory . That suggests we could see a pullback in the very near term. Also, the longer term moving averages are still bearish, with MA7 below MA30 below MA120 on the daily timeframe . So the overall trend has not flipped yet. This is still a bounce within a downtrend, not a reversal .

The immediate resistance is in that 1720 to 1750 zone. That area has been a magnet for sellers and it is where the 50 EMA sits at around 1740 . If ETH can close above 1750 with conviction and good volume, that opens the door to 1800 and then maybe the 1820 area where the 100 EMA is lurking . But if it gets rejected there, we are probably looking at a retest of the 1680 to 1695 support zone, which was the breakout level . Below that, 1650 and then 1620 come into play .

One thing worth noting is that ETF inflows turned positive again, with BlackRock leading the way . That kind of institutional support is what helped fuel this bounce in the first place. But exchange netflows are still warning of potential selling pressure, so it is not all clear skies .

For now, I think the smart play is to watch how ETH reacts around that 1720 to 1750 resistance area. A clean break above with volume could be a decent entry opportunity. A rejection might mean waiting for a pullback to that 1680 support before considering any long positions. Just my two cents.
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