He has been cursing the dot plot for 14 years—yet tonight he’ll need it to save his life

Kevin Worsh, you’ve got today too.

At 2:30 a.m. Thursday Beijing time, the newly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve will sit in the most closely watched seat in the world and hold his first press conference since taking office.

Just a few weeks ago, he was at a Senate hearing, cursing the dot plot until it spilled out of his mouth—“The Federal Reserve tells the world what their projections are, and then clings to those projections longer than it should.”

So what now?

The market is waiting for him to draw a dot.

If he doesn’t draw one, the market runs out of control. If he does draw one, it’s like slapping his own face.

That is Worsh’s predicament tonight: a man who has been cursing the dot plot for 14 years now needs it more than anyone else to save his life.

First, let’s talk about how much he hates the dot plot

Worsh’s hatred of the dot plot isn’t put on.

At the Senate confirmation hearing in April, he listed the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as a typical symptom of “over-communication” by the Federal Reserve. He dug up old accounts from 2021–22—back then, the Fed misled the market with the dot plot by claiming inflation was “transitory,” only to end up delivering the most aggressive rate hikes in 40 years.

His exact words were: “The Federal Reserve is also made up of people, and then they will stick to these projections longer than they should.”

In plain terms: the bread you’re all drawing up for yourselves is something you can’t even swallow yourselves.

So he promised a “regime change”—abolish the dot plot and put an end to overly forward-looking guidance. Most Wall Street observers expect that tonight he won’t even submit his own interest rate projections.

If that really happens, it would break the Fed’s 14-year-long tradition.

But here’s the problem—

He needs the dot plot more than anyone else

Why?

Because what Worsh inherits is a mess that’s as bad as it can get.

First, inflation has exploded.

In May, U.S. CPI rose 4.2% year over year, breaking above 4% for the first time in three years. Energy prices are the culprit—gasoline is up more than 40% year over year. The Fed’s most watched core PCE is also staying high.

Multiple FOMC officials have been shouting for rate hikes. Tonight, the wording in the Fed statement that hints “the next step could be rate cuts” will most likely be removed.

Second, the market has already made a move.

Federal funds futures show that the probability the market is pricing for rate hikes by the end of the year is already above 80%.

What does that mean? The bond market is making the decision for Worsh.

If he doesn’t come across as firm enough at the press conference, long-end interest rates will jump straight up—meaning the market is hiking rates for him. JPMorgan chief economist Feroi put it bluntly: “If he can’t maintain confidence in the bond market, a higher risk premium will be embedded in interest rates, which is bad for the economy.”

Third, the White House is yanking hard from the other side.

On May 22, Trump personally hosted Worsh’s inauguration ceremony in the East Room of the White House—this is the first time in nearly 40 years that a Fed chair has been sworn in at the White House.

Trump says, “I hope Kevin is fully independent,” and then turns around to say, “We also hope to rein in inflation, but we don’t want to get in the way of economic prosperity.” On June 8, he was even more direct: “If the Federal Reserve chooses to hike rates, that would be a wrong decision.”

Translation: rate cuts—right now, immediately.

Three forces are tearing Worsh apart

The White House is shouting: “Rate cuts! The economy needs to prosper!”

Inflation is shouting: “Rate hikes! If we don’t clamp it down, it will get out of control!”

The market is shouting: “It’s up to you, but we’ve already bet on rate hikes.”

Worsh sits in the middle, like a puppet tied by three strings.

He used to align with Trump’s calls for rate cuts. But now he’s the chair of the Federal Reserve—what he’s facing isn’t the comment section on Twitter, but 4.2% inflation and an 80% probability of rate hikes.

Johns Hopkins University political science professor Yabuko said something that really hits: if Worsh ultimately chooses to cut rates, the market will interpret it as— the Fed’s independence being substantively eroded.

Rate cuts = surrender. No rate cuts = offending the boss.

No matter how he chooses, it’s wrong.

The most exciting part: the press conference

Tonight’s biggest highlight isn’t the rate decision itself (which will most likely stay put), but the press conference.

Reporters will definitely ask Worsh a question that makes his back go cold:

“Chairman, you previously said the dot plot was a mistake that limits the Federal Reserve’s decision-making ability. Then tonight, will you submit your own dot plot projections?”

Will he dare to say “no”?

The market needs guidance. Without a dot plot, investors will panic. Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist Sanders put it well: “The SEP can always stir up market conditions, even though the accuracy of its forecasts is at best merely moderate.”

But will he dare to say “yes”?

That would be slapping his own face in front of the whole world.

Inglehart, a former Federal Reserve monetary policy official and now a professor at Yale University, judged: “He will most likely not want to submit an interest rate forecast.”

But the problem is—whether he wants to or not doesn’t matter; what matters is whether the market needs it.

My take: he will invent some “new thing.”

Worsh isn’t stupid.

He can’t both refuse to provide guidance and also let the market fall apart. He needs a communication approach that “preserves his personal style while providing enough information.”

My guess is that he’ll come up with some kind of “range dot plot” or “scenario analysis”—essentially still a forecast, just with a different name, so he doesn’t have to admit that he’s drawing a dot plot.

That isn’t a slap in the face; that’s “flexibility.”

But whether the market buys it is another matter.

Former Federal Reserve economist Sam warned: if Worsh downplays the importance of the SEP, investors will interpret it as— the Fed is “masking” a hawkish shift inside the committee in order to keep rates high to fight inflation.

A Federal Reserve that appears to be hiding internal debates will be seen as complacent about inflation risks— and that is precisely the credibility it can’t afford to lose.

What does this mean for you (crypto players)?

No matter how Worsh performs tonight, the outcome is the same:

Rate cuts are off the table. Rate hikes are on the way.

UBS has pushed back expectations for rate cuts to 2027. Goldman Sachs expects rates to stay unchanged in 2026, and only possibly cut once each in 2027 and 2028.

So what does this mean for BTC?

Liquidity will keep tightening, and risk assets will keep coming under pressure.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire temporarily dragged down oil prices, giving inflation some breathing room. But the stubbornness of core inflation won’t disappear just because geopolitics changes.

All Worsh has to say tonight is that “inflation risks are still moving upward,” and Bitcoin will take another hit.

“Kevin Worsh has been cursing the dot plot for 14 years, but tonight he’ll have to rely on it to steady the market—the greatest irony of life is that you finally sit in that position, only to find that all your idealism can’t beat a single sentence: ‘The #我的Gate交易时刻 market needs it.’”