🔔🔔🔔 Currently known high probability: Powell will not raise interest rates, but there is a possibility of implementing a policy of "cutting interest rates + shrinking the balance sheet." Whether this is bullish or bearish depends on his specific statements, with the following scenarios:

1. "Cutting interest rates + not shrinking the balance sheet," if Powell explicitly indicates room for rate cuts and does not mention shrinking the balance sheet (or states that there are no plans to shrink it in the near future), this is a big positive;
2. "Not cutting interest rates + not shrinking the balance sheet," if Powell states that he will continue to hold steady, this is a neutral statement, and the market will not be significantly affected;
3. "Cutting interest rates + shrinking the balance sheet," this is the most complex scenario, where rate cuts are bullish, but shrinking the balance sheet is bearish. However, shrinking the balance sheet has a greater impact on market liquidity than rate cuts, so it is still somewhat bearish;
4. "Not cutting interest rates + rapid balance sheet reduction," this is definitely a big bearish signal, as market liquidity will sharply contract, triggering a new round of sell-offs.