Technical Outlook: ETH Stabilizing Above Macro Support — Relief Rally Attempt Underway

ETH remains under broader bearish pressure despite showing signs of stabilization above the major macro support region around $1,540–$1,720. Following months of persistent lower highs and lower lows, price continues trading beneath all major moving averages while attempting a short-term recovery from deeply oversold conditions.

Although momentum has improved noticeably over the past few sessions, the higher-timeframe trend remains bearish until ETH reclaims key resistance levels overhead.

📈 EMA Structure (Bearish)

- 20 EMA: $1,796

- 50 EMA: $1,962

- 100 EMA: $2,118

- 200 EMA: $2,385

- Price remains below all major EMAs ❌

- 20 EMA acting as immediate dynamic resistance

- 50 & 100 EMA continue capping upside recovery attempts

- 200 EMA remains the primary macro trend barrier

👉 ETH must reclaim the EMA cluster before any sustainable trend reversal can be confirmed.

📐 Fibonacci & Structure

- Price remains below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,298
- Long-term downtrend structure remains intact
- Recent selloff swept liquidity beneath major support zones
- Current rebound appears corrective within the broader bearish trend

👉 Any relief rally could target:

- $1,800 → Immediate resistance / 20 EMA
- $1,960 → 50 EMA resistance
- $2,120 → 100 EMA resistance
- $2,300 → 0.236 Fibonacci resistance

👉 Failure to hold current support could expose:

- $1,716 → Near-term support
- $1,540 → Critical macro support
- Lower liquidity zones beneath $1,540 if bearish momentum accelerates

🧠 ICT / Smart Money View

- Recent decline swept significant sell-side liquidity below range support
- Market structure remains bearish with lower highs still intact
- Multiple failed recovery attempts suggest continued distribution
- Fair Value Gap (FVG) remains overhead and partially unfilled
- No confirmed bullish market structure shift has occurred

👉 Smart money flow continues favoring sellers until ETH can reclaim higher resistance zones and invalidate the current bearish structure.

📉 RSI Momentum

- RSI (14): 44.9
- Recovering from oversold territory ⚠️
- Momentum improving compared with recent lows
- Buyers showing early participation, but confirmation remains absent

👉 RSI supports a relief rally scenario, though it does not yet signal a major trend reversal.

📊 Key Levels

🔴 Resistance

- $1,800 → 20 EMA
- $1,960 → 50 EMA
- $2,120 → 100 EMA
- $2,300 → Fibonacci resistance
- $2,385 → 200 EMA

🟢 Support

- $1,716 → Near-term support
- $1,540 → Critical macro support
- Below $1,540 → Increased downside risk

📌 Final Outlook

ETH remains trapped within a broader downtrend after months of persistent weakness and continues trading beneath all major EMA and Fibonacci resistance levels.

- ✅ Reclaim & hold above $1,800–$1,960 → opens recovery path toward $2,120 → $2,300
- ✅ Break above $2,300 → significantly improves medium-term market structure
- ❌ Loss of $1,540 support → increases probability of a move into lower liquidity zones

👉 Overall structure remains bearish. While RSI is recovering and price is attempting to establish a base above macro support, bulls must reclaim the $1,800–$1,960 region before any larger recovery scenario becomes credible. Until then, sellers remain in control of the broader trend.

$ETH ‌