- Bitcoin is lagging global liquidity at record levels: Will it catch up?

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading about 48% below its October peak, even as the global money supply hits a record high, creating a major gap between the asset and global liquidity in this cycle.

This divergence has drawn the attention of market analysts who view liquidity as a key indicator for risky assets. Their main question is whether Bitcoin will break a long-established pattern or continue it.

Bitcoin diverges from global liquidity
Alfractaal said that global money supply M2, a commonly used measure of global liquidity, has recently reached an all-time high of nearly $135 trillion. The S&P 500 index has kept pace with this expansion, trading near its own record highs.

Historically, Bitcoin follows the same liquidity wave, though with higher volatility and a longer lag. This relationship continued through 2024 and the beginning of 2025 before collapsing.

“Since early 2025, Bitcoin’s price has diverged sharply: while the M2 indicator continued to reach new all-time highs and the SPX index recovered to a level close to its all-time high, Bitcoin’s price declined,” the company said.

Alfractaal described the current divergence as the clearest in its dataset and outlined two ways to read it.

The first is a convergence reading. It holds that an asset whose liquidity has fallen to this extent usually closes the gap by rising in price. This rebound comes from price increases, not from a decrease in liquidity.

The second explanation is a structural interpretation, which considers the relationship between Bitcoin and liquidity to be non-mechanical and not fixed. Past divergences were resolved in 2018 and 2022 over a period ranging from 6 to 18 months. This relationship can also weaken as the base of Bitcoin holders changes.

Alfractaal said, “Any reading that applies depends on whether the current divergence reflects a temporary glitch or a structural shift in Bitcoin’s correlation system.”

Analyst Martine Gaye also raised the issue in a similar way, saying that the macroeconomic situation is improving, but that this has not yet shown up in Bitcoin. Either Bitcoin starts narrowing the gap, or its correlation with liquidity will break in a way “we haven’t seen in a long time.”
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