Iran peace talks, Solana rockets 9% overnight! But at $73 SOL, do you dare to chase?

First, look at the surface: a violent rebound, but the long-term picture is still bleak.

Current price is $73.3, down 1.4% over 24 hours, yet it has surged strongly by 9% from last week’s low of $60. Sounds great? Take another look at the long run: down 75% from the January high of $294, with a drop of over 41% this year, and the monthly chart is still sprawled on the ground gasping. What the candlestick chart tells you: it has broken out of the descending channel, is standing above EMA34, MACD has started turning positive, down 75%—it’s time for this rebound; don’t get knocked out before dawn.

First thing: geopolitics saved SOL, but the real big players are secretly gobbling up the chips.

Rumors of a US-Iran peace agreement—when oil prices collapsed, risk assets went all-in. BTC back to 66,000, SOL surged violently by 7–11%.

Sounds like luck? But look at on-chain data—at the $61–$62 level, an address suddenly bought 5 million SOL in one go. ETF net inflows have been positive for three straight days, and institutions have been accumulating at the bottom for a full week.

Second thing: RWA has become SOL’s nuclear weapon, but 99% of people still haven’t realized it.

SpaceX stock is being put on-chain on SOL; on the same day Nasdaq listed it; trading volume exceeds 50 million.

Exodus + Ondo launched 200+ tokenized stock/ETF tokens; traditional financial assets are being put on-chain in batches.

Ethena pledges $250 million to invest in a Solana securitized CLO fund.

World Series of Poker (WSOP) official sponsorship + SOL payments—traditional giants are starting to vote with real money.

Third thing: the Alpenglow upgrade is right around the corner, but the market hasn’t priced it in yet.

Q3 2026, Alpenglow mainnet goes live; the final confirmation time is cut from 400 milliseconds to 150 milliseconds.

Ethereum is still counting in seconds, while Solana has entered the millisecond era. There’s a reason Visa chose Solana for stablecoin settlement.

Bull-bear battle—judge for yourself:

One side is:

US-Iran peace agreement, risk appetite recovering, BTC back to 66,000

ETF net inflows for three consecutive days, institutions absorbing from the bottom

RWA exploding: SpaceX, Exodus, Ethena all running on SOL

Alpenglow upgrade landing in Q3, performance doubling again

61–62 whale gobbling up 5 million SOL

The other side is:

Down 41% for the year, down 75% from the high of 294

TVL pulled back from its peak, with some on-chain data cooling off

Macro uncertainty (Fed policy swings)

Pressure is huge at the $80 level

Bull-bear fighting, but there’s one fact you can’t get around:

A 75% drop has already washed out 99% of the panic sell orders.

At the key level of $73.3, you’re only $7 away from the life-or-death line at $80.

Resistance above: 75–78 → 80–85 (bulls’ life-or-death line) → 97.5

Support below: 70–72 → 68 → 62–63 (iron bottom)

Short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 70–72 to enter in batches; stop-loss at 68; take profit on half at 78–80. After a high-volume breakout above 80, chase with targets of 85+.

Swing traders:

Wait until the daily candle closes and holds above 80 before considering adding. Otherwise, just hold the core position. Once 80–85 breaks, the target goes straight to 97–100.

Long-term believers:

Buy blindly with DCA below 70, and increase the size below 65. SOL fell from 294 to 60—a drop of 80%, but the fundamentals are 10 times stronger than in 2024. Target by end of 2026: 120–150, betting on the RWA + Alpenglow dividend.

The market is always like this: bottoms in despair, rises in hesitation, tops in madness. #我的Gate交易时刻 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #Gate现货交易量逆势增长增幅全球第一 $BTC $ETH $SOL