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Oil down 3.66% in 24h. BTC up 3.4%.
Almost a perfect mirror. That symmetry is not a coincidence and it's not bullish.
When macro relief and risk-on move at the same magnitude, it means BTC is trading as a geopolitical hedge, not as a risk asset. The Strait of Hormuz deal gave oil sellers relief and BTC buyers a reason. Both moved the same amount in opposite directions.
April told you how this ends. First ceasefire: BTC $65K → $78K overnight. Truce collapsed. Every dollar reversed.
Markets remembered. This time the response was calibrated from the start.
@Polymarket has the deal signing at 86%. Iranian uranium surrender (the actual substance) at 9%. The ceremony is priced in. The compliance isn't.
BTC is tracking the second number.
Fear & Greed sits at 20. Extreme Fear. Unchanged after the bounce. Price moved. Sentiment didn't. That's a relief trade with a short leash.
The confirmation markers:
> Strait of Hormuz operationally verified 72+ hours
> BTC ETF net inflows positive 3 consecutive days
> Fear & Greed crosses 30
Until those clear, a 3.4% move on a 3.66% oil drop tells you exactly what this market thinks the deal is worth.