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Whale Ethereum Adds $950 Million as Hope for Bottom Increases, but the Story Has a Flaw

Ethereum Price
ETHUSD
has rebounded 22% from June's lowest level and successfully reclaimed the widely watched institutional trend line. This movement occurred just as spot ETF fund flows returned to ETH after weeks of redemption.

Whales continue to increase their holdings throughout the decline, and on-chain accumulation is beginning to reappear. However, the rise in leverage still raises one question: is this truly the bottom or just another bounce within a downtrend?

Ethereum Price Successfully Returns to Monthly VWAP Line

On June 14, Ethereum's price closed above its monthly VWAP, which is the volume-weighted average price commonly used by institutions as a boundary between accumulation and distribution.

This return above VWAP is significant because of the pattern that occurs after previous events. When ETH crossed the same line on April 6, the price rose about 19% before stalling. The price's return above the line around May 1 also triggered a smaller increase of about 7%.

Both moments share one similarity. Spot ETF flows turned positive within a few days, as if this crossing again attracted institutional funds back into ETH.

Whether this relationship is direct or just reflects renewed optimism is hard to prove. But, this pattern does repeat.

That’s why the latest ETF data is a key factor to watch.

Spot ETF Flows Turn Green After Severe Decline

This trend reversal happened just in time. The ETH spot ETF product received inflows of $22.5 million on June 15, one day after the price moved back above VWAP.

This positive flow broke a long decline streak. From May 11 to June 12, ETF funds experienced nearly daily outflows, with only two days showing inflows. This contrasts sharply with the spring period, which saw high inflows—$101 million on May 1 and $98 million on May 5—before a prolonged outflow.

Currently, total net assets are around $10.04 billion. The return of inflows, though small, mirrors what happened after the reclaim events in April and May. During the prolonged reclaim of May's VWAP, inflows occurred over several days, and this could happen again if the bottom theory holds strong.

But ETF flows alone cannot confirm whether this is truly the bottom. On-chain holder behavior plays a more decisive role.

Whales Keep Buying as Signs of Capitulation Begin to Fade

Large holders had already shown confidence in ETH before ETH crossed the VWAP line. Whale accumulation continued to rise even as prices declined. Santiment-monitored addresses increased their holdings from about 124.85 million ETH on June 10 to around 125.4 million now. That’s roughly $950 million in less than a week.

On-chain flows also reinforce this buy signal. Selling pressure appeared to ease around June 7, one day after the local bottom was formed. At that time, the net exchange position—tracking coins entering and leaving exchanges—shifted toward net outflows.

This flow reversal indicates holders are preferring to move coins into storage rather than selling. This pattern aligns with the whale buying activity above, as this gradual accumulation absorbs the last supply entering exchanges.

This situation looks like seller exhaustion, the exact scenario that supports a bottom call.

This background is suitable for the possibility of a bottom formation. Swissblock’s Altcoin Vector report describes ETH as being trapped in a prolonged capitulation phase, a period of heavy, sustained selling pressure often preceding a bottom.

The firm states that capitulation usually only creates a bottom once selling pressure begins to weaken. They question whether this exhaustion phase is near now. And the change in net exchange position metrics suggests it might be approaching.

One factor, however, complicates confirming the bottom: the derivatives market conditions.

Important Ethereum Price Levels Emerge

This is where key levels come into play. Ethereum’s current price hovers near $1,771, back above the monthly VWAP at $1,705, which was reclaimed on June 14. The price has risen about 22% since the June low near $1,507. But more is needed to confirm a bottom.

The critical threshold is at $1,851. If the daily close is above this level, the rally can be considered valid and open the door to previous price ranges.

The issue is leverage. Open interest in ETH futures—the total value of open contracts—has surged sharply. It increased from around $8.86 billion in early June to about $9.96 billion, even touching $10.27 billion at one point.

Strong, sustained capitulation typically occurs after leverage is wiped out and remains low. But here, the opposite is happening, as open interest is rising along with the price.

This indicates a rally driven by leverage, not pure spot demand. The crowded long positions are vulnerable. If prices suddenly drop sharply, it could trigger liquidations and a wave of selling. Therefore, this capitulation may not be fully over.

If prices fall, $1,624 becomes the first support level, followed by the low at $1,507. If the daily close drops below $1,507, a new bottom scenario could emerge.

A recovery above $1,851 would distinguish between a confirmed bottom or just a failed rebound that falls back below VWAP.