71% win rate is no joke — Polymarket's money has already told you the answer

Brothers, when talking about the Argentina vs. Algeria match, the most direct starting point is the numbers. Gate prediction market data shows that Argentina's implied probability of winning is about 70.5%. Kalshi's data is similar, with Argentina winning at 71%, a draw at 20%, and Algeria a dark horse at only 11%. This isn't guesswork; it's a consensus formed by real money.

Let's also look at traditional betting. Bet365's odds for Argentina to win are -239, which translates to an implied probability of about 70%. Algeria's odds are +600, with an implied probability of only around 14%, and a draw at +350, roughly over 20%. The figures from institutions and prediction markets are highly consistent — this game isn't about whether Argentina can win, but how they will win and by how much.

But to be fair, yesterday Spain was held to a 0-0 draw by Cape Verde, with 27 shots on goal but zero on target. Belgium also lost. Will the collective "slow start" of strong teams spread to Argentina? That’s something market data can't tell you. The 70% win rate on Polymarket is based on Argentina performing normally. If Messi is out of form, or if Alvarez's absence has a bigger impact than expected, Algeria could very well steal a point.

But I still stand by my words: Argentina is the defending champion, ranked number one in the world, with seven straight wins in warm-up matches, scoring 21 goals and conceding just 1. The chance of them slipping up under these conditions is even lower than Spain's. The 71% on Polymarket isn't unfounded; I’m willing to put my money on it.

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