Argentina vs Algeria — The first step on the road to defending the title: an upset or a sure win?

The Pampas Eagles’ title defense gets underway. Bet365’s odds for an Argentina win are about -239 (corresponding to a 70% win probability). Combined with Kalshi’s prediction market, which shows a 71.9% probability that Group J’s top spot goes to the J-team, the market is effectively a one-way bet on Argentina advancing.

Argentina’s vulnerabilities aren’t in the forward line, but in the back line. With Tali Yafico absent, center-back Balerdi has also withdrawn from the national team due to injury and has been forced to call up Seneisi instead. Over the past few days, Scaloni has repeatedly tested different defensive pairings in training—the degree of cohesion among whatever lineup is cobbled together on the spot will be the biggest unknown. Algeria have just beaten the Netherlands 1-0 away in a warm-up match, and their defensive counterattacking tactical execution has already been proven. If Argentina can’t break the deadlock for a long time, Algeria absolutely have the possibility to launch a counterattack and nick a goal. A draw hedge with a small position is the safest choice for this match.

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