Polymarket is not a "truth machine"; it is a cash machine for nine people

You think it's making money from information? Actually, you're giving money to whales.

Only half of 2026 has passed, and Polymarket's controversial orders have already exceeded 1,150, surpassing the total for last year.

Before, when you played Polymarket, you thought you were voting with real money, participating in "collective intelligence."

Now, do you still dare to say that?

Today, I will lay three things out for you to ponder.

First: MSTR Bitcoin sales, rules changed afterward.

Strategy sold 32 Bitcoins from May 26 to 31, only announced on June 1.

There is a $79 million contract on Polymarket asking whether Strategy sold Bitcoin before May 31.

According to the rules—literally—yes, they sold, and within the deadline.

What was the result? The platform later clarified: the announcement was not made before the deadline, so it doesn't count. Ultimately, 98% of UMA voters voted "No."

A 20-year-old student’s prediction of $35k was directly invalidated, 1,838 accounts and $3.8 million positions were wiped out.

The phrase "rules suddenly changed" used to only appear in shady schemes. Now, it appears on a valuation worth billions of dollars—"the global truth machine."

Second: Spain's upset, new wallet precisely bets $9.06 million.

Early this morning, in the World Cup, Spain drew with Cape Verde, shocking everyone.

A newly created wallet, making its first bet, precisely wagers $4.22 million that "Spain will not win."

In the end, $422,000 turned into $35k, netting $906,000.

Entering 8 minutes before the match ended, new wallet, first bet, heavy stake, underdog—four words together—do you call this an "information advantage"?

This is not an information advantage; it's an information gap.

"Either you know the result in advance, or you're just a fool."

Third: US-Iran peace agreement, $345 million hanging in the air.

The US and Iran announced a 60-day ceasefire agreement. On Polymarket, the contract betting on "US-Iran peace agreement" has a trading volume exceeding $345 million.

The contract clearly states: it must explicitly declare that military hostilities "have ended or will be permanently stopped."

60 days of ceasefire, not permanent.

What was the result? Someone proposed voting "Yes," and was immediately questioned by UMA holders. The $345 million remains unresolved.

"You're betting on 'peace,' but they're playing 'word games.'"

Connecting these three events, you will discover a shocking truth:

Polymarket's rulings are never in your hands.

Whose hands are they in?

Bloomberg analyzed blockchain data from the past three years and found that nine wallet addresses hold over half of the UMA voting tokens.

Nine. Anonymous. Wallets.

These nine "almost always vote unanimously, and always for the winning side."

The Wall Street Journal's investigation is even more revealing: nearly one-fifth of disputes involve voters with financial interests in the same market.

"Are you letting contestants judge, or are judges betting themselves?"

A disqualified large voting committee member admitted: "You can only choose between traders with conflicts of interest or fools without conflicts."

In plain language: either whales are controlling everything, or fools are blindly betting. There is no third way.

So, does the prediction market still have a future?

In 2025, global prediction market trading volume surged nearly fourfold to $64 billion. Polymarket's monthly trading volume remains above $20 billion.

The data looks impressive. But what is behind the data?

Official accounts frequently post false information, investors unfollow, Jeff Bezos personally refutes rumors.

Insider trading scandals from Venezuela to Iran, from geopolitical issues to startup funding.

The platform itself states in its terms of service that "settlement rules can be supplemented later."

"If the judges can change rules at any time, then this competition has been fake from the start."

My conclusion is straightforward:

The value of prediction markets lies in information discovery—gathering dispersed wisdom into a probability signal.

But now, Polymarket's information advantage has become a channel for insider trading, and collective intelligence has turned into a voting game for nine whales.

This is not a "truth machine"; it’s a casino disguised as infrastructure.

If this sector cannot solve three issues—transparent rulings,利益隔离, rule locking—it will forever remain an advanced form of gambling, never truly becoming a financial infrastructure.

"When 'decentralization' becomes 'nine wallets decide,' this industry #我的Gate交易时刻 is not far from death."