The "Ultimate Judgment Week" for the global financial markets has arrived.

Focus on these three central banks this week, don’t wait for technical signals to fail

Three major central banks, 72 hours, three shots fired. For those holding six-figure positions, this article is written especially for you.

🧵 Break it down point by point 👇

1. Countdown: 72 hours.

June 16 (Tuesday) → Bank of Japan June 18 (Thursday) → Federal Reserve June 18 (Thursday) → Bank of England

Within three days, three central banks will act back-to-back. This is no coincidence; it’s the strongest coordinated effort among global central banks this year.

In recent weeks, global assets have been tossed around by the incident in the Strait of Hormuz, barely catching their breath after the positive news of the US-Iran agreement. The Dow surged to 51,671 points, hitting a new all-time high, with the Nasdaq soaring 3%. Many hadn’t even had time to celebrate before the real "shock" hit.

These three shots are fired in quick succession. Any one of them signaling hawkishness beyond market expectations will trigger a "triple kill" for risk assets.

Are you ready? Ready to be liquidated?

2. June 16, Bank of Japan — The world’s safest "free cash machine" is forcibly locked

Market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, officially pushing the policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%, entering the "1% era" — the highest level since 1995, 31 years ago.

1% sounds low? But in the macro world, "the last rate hike" is more than just literal.

This is the last global zero-cost funding pool, officially closing. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will be absent due to health reasons, with Deputy Governor Uchida Shunichi presiding.

Here’s the key —

The scale of yen arbitrage trading is about $400 billion. Countless institutions over the past decade borrowed yen, bought US bonds, Bitcoin, AI tech stocks, playing the game of "borrowing at zero cost to make money." And this time, net short yen positions have soared to their highest since 2017.

If the Bank of Japan raises rates and signals that "there’s still a possibility of further hikes" from the "wait-and-see" stance, the sound of this landmine being stepped on will be much louder than in 2024.

At that point, arbitrage trades will face deleveraging. Who will be sold off first? Always the riskiest — Bitcoin and various altcoins.

When the Bank of Japan unexpectedly hikes in July 2024, the carry trade chain collapses, and Bitcoin plummets from $65,000 to $50,000 within a week. If hawkish signals are misinterpreted, the reliance of cryptocurrencies on liquidity could turn all technical analysis into trash.

3. June 18, Federal Reserve — This time, not raising rates is the biggest "bad news"

After the tough battle in Japan on Tuesday, crypto positions still can’t relax — because bigger variables are still ahead.

Market expects the Fed to keep rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, with a 98.5% probability. But that’s not the real focus. The key factors that will determine the fate of risk assets from September to year-end are three:

① The "dovish" inclination in the statement will be removed. Huatai Securities expects the FOMC to completely eliminate language indicating a dovish bias in the decision statement. In plain language: the economy might weaken, but inflation won’t come down, so I do nothing, and I might even hike.

② The dot plot’s guidance of one rate cut in 2026-27 will be changed to keep rates unchanged. This move effectively kills the last "rate cut fantasy" in the market.

③ The "hellish start" of new Chair Kevin Woor — his debut will be the real focus.

Three weeks into Trump’s presidency, Fed Chair Kevin Woor must deliver his first policy report amid inflation returning above 4%, bond markets starting to price in rate hikes by year-end, Trump’s continued pressure to cut rates, and the most severe internal division in the FOMC in nearly 34 years. The market generally expects his tone to be "neutral leaning hawkish."

Goldman Sachs has completely abandoned the rate cut fantasy for this year, delaying the first cut to June 2027, and doubling the probability of rate hikes.

Expectations for Fed rate hikes remain, Trump calls for cuts, but the market doesn’t believe it; Woor will decide based on data, not for anyone’s sake.

4. Same day, Bank of England — The tug-of-war between inflation and the economy may intensify global liquidity pressures

Market expects the Bank of England to hold the base rate at 3.75%, but voting results could split 7:2. Chief Economist Piel may support another rate hike.

Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of England to keep rates steady through 2026, with a rate cut window possibly delayed until 2027. Bank of England Governor Bailey believes they can "wait and see." But the real danger isn’t the rate hike itself; it’s that, in a high global interest rate environment, any central bank unwilling to loosen will tighten the "water tap" again and again — where does liquidity come from? From carry trades or crypto markets? The side with lower capital costs will be the first to run.

One shot alone may not be enough to cause a storm, but combined with Japan and the US, it could form a small perfect storm.

5. Conclusion — Reduce positions before Thursday, at least don’t leverage more

The Dow hits new highs, oil prices plunge, US and Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Wall Street bulls go wild. But the reality in the next 72 hours is: once Japan or the US signals hawkishness — even just strong wording — the market will immediately face a "risk asset triple kill."

Cryptocurrency is fundamentally a liquidity premium game. When the three major central banks simultaneously signal "don’t expect easing," don’t wait for technical signals to fail.

Bitcoin has retraced from its $123k all-time high to around $66k, nearly halved. Key support levels are $62,000 and $60,000. Trading volume has shrunk compared to before, indicating less willingness to chase highs.

Let me be direct:

"Three consecutive central bank kills, each trigger takes out a group of unprotected speculators. When you see panic on the K-line, it’s already too late to reduce."

Three doors closing layer by layer. You either adjust your positions now or wait for their wording to trigger emotions.

Safety first. Take profits now, at least unload leverage. #我的Gate交易时刻 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #比特币反弹 $BTC $ETH $XAU