June 16 Tuesday SOL Morning Thoughts

Driven by easing geopolitical tensions, the market has warmed up, and SOL has experienced a short-term recovery trend. The current price hovers around $74, with increased trading volume over the past 24 hours, but the overall long-term bearish structure has not reversed, and the price remains under pressure below various medium- and long-term moving averages.
Technically, the short-term first resistance is $74-75 (20-day moving average resistance). Only a breakout can open the recovery space to $81 and $85; short-term support is at $67, with a key bottom at $63-65. Once these levels are broken, the current rebound will be directly terminated, and the price will return to a downward channel. Indicators have moved from oversold to neutral zones, with short-term rebound momentum gradually weakening. The rise relies on short positions closing, lacking institutional incremental funds support.
On the macro side, with the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting approaching, expectations of high interest rates continue to suppress crypto assets. Funds are more inclined to flow back into Bitcoin, with altcoins experiencing serious outflows. SOL ecosystem activity continues to decline, with limited upside potential. It is not suitable to chase high prices; prioritize waiting for a pullback to support levels before observing and positioning. Evening liquidity changes in the US market may amplify volatility, so position control is essential.
Trading suggestion: wait for a pullback to $67-68 for a target of $75. If not broken, reverse $BTC and go short.