June 16 BTC/ETH Market Morning Report — Two positives have been realized, and one negative is on the way

Recently, the US-Iran talks have progressed, the blockade status of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted, Bitcoin broke out of the ranging market and directly surged to above 67,000. After Ethereum rushed toward 1,850 and failed, it pulled back. The positive news has basically been realized; the impact may gradually weaken. Personal viewpoint: don’t blindly chase longs—if anything, it’s better to keep treating resistance above as high-altitude trading. Specific thoughts are as follows:

This round of uptrend lacks active buying support. It is more due to shorts closing out after taking large profits from earlier positions, rather than a systematic bottom-fishing layout with incremental funds. All the positive news from the US-Iran talks has been digested over the weekend into Monday. If there is no substantial progress later on—such as confirmation of an agreement or real recovery in shipping—then the rebound momentum will quickly fade.

Japan’s interest rate hike and the Fed’s hawkish remarks are the most core macro variables of this week and the most worth paying attention to. The announcement on June 16 of a 25 basis point rate hike—everyone should know what Japan’s rate hike means, and the impact on the price of Bitcoin is still quite significant! The market has given up expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2026 and has pushed the first rate cut back to 2027, so you cannot hold expectations for a market reversal. The recent rally, at best, is a one-time positive from the cooling of geopolitical risk and a technical oversold rebound/repair. Therefore, the view remains unchanged: mainly stay lightly positioned and focus on shorting!

For the short positions around 66,000–68,500 yesterday and the shorts of 1,740–1,830, I guess everyone who held them must have been on edge. If you’ve insisted on holding, then just keep holding. Even if you’re trapped, you should be able to get out of the trap soon. If your position size is heavy, adjust in a timely manner. As always: with the current situation still unstable and at the time-node in the halving cycle, it’s definitely better to participate with light positions!

Bitcoin: watch resistance suppression around 66,800–68,500; watch support below at 66,000 and 65,000–63,700–62,222–60,000.

Ethereum: watch resistance suppression around 1,820–1,850–1,905; watch support below at 1,740–1,715–1,640–1,580–1,515

Note: Remember to participate with light positions for the above short trades. There may be deviations in the entry levels: Bitcoin: ±100 points; Ethereum: ±5 points. The above viewpoints are for reference only—your gains and losses are your own responsibility!

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