June 16 Tuesday Gold Morning Outlook

Spot gold is currently stabilizing around $4,315, after previously falling to a low of $4,023 and then showing a continuous recovery trend. The core driving force comes from the U.S. and Iran reaching a détente agreement, with falling oil prices reducing inflationary pressure. The market has lowered the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year, and short sellers' stop-losses have driven gold prices higher. However, this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting is a key turning point; U.S. inflation data remains high. If tonight's speech signals a hawkish stance, the current rebound will quickly face downward pressure, and the long-term downward structure has not been fully reversed.
Technically, the daily chart shows three consecutive bullish days, with short-term support at the 4290-4300 range, where previous resistance has turned into support. The first resistance above is at 4360-4370, with a strong barrier at the 4400 mark. Only if it stabilizes above this level can there be further upward room. Indicators have moved out of deeply oversold zones, so short-term rebound momentum still exists, but the risk of chasing highs is high. The market volatility will increase with tonight’s U.S. market data.
The trading strategy mainly focuses on buying on dips near support, with light positions at higher resistance levels to watch for short-term pullbacks. Pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's policy statements early tomorrow morning, and strictly manage position risk.
Operational suggestion: look for a rebound around 4300, with a target of 4330; if broken, then aim for 4370; if not broken, consider reversing $BTC the position.