June 12, 2026. The largest IPO in history took place on Nasdaq. SPCX opened at an IPO price of $135 and closed at $161, up 19% at the end of the first session. Almost all of the public float changed hands on the opening day.

I was following this stock in the Gate Trading section. Before the IPO, it had risen to $220 in on-chain futures markets, then pulled back to $150. That price discovery process taught me a lot.
Now the stock is trading between $170 and $180. In one week, from $135 to these levels. To understand this context, you need to look at the company's story.
SpaceX is today the undisputed world leader in two things: rocket launching and satellite internet.
The Falcon 9 holds more than 60% of the global commercial launch market. Rival rocket programs still cannot reliably achieve what SpaceX accomplished in 2015: reusable first-stage landing. This technical superiority has reduced the cost per launch to one-tenth of that of traditional rockets.
Starlink is a different story. It currently operates with approximately 7,000 active satellites. It provides service in more than 100 countries. According to the latest publicly available data, it has over 5 million active subscribers. The average monthly revenue is between $100 and $150 per subscriber. This is a recurring and geographically independent revenue stream.
The xAI merger has also been added to the picture. The merger of SpaceX and Elon Musk's AI company complicated the balance sheet but also created a new model that combines space infrastructure with AI computing capacity. The acquisition of AI data processing capabilities by Starlink satellites is a long-term scenario, but the market has begun to price it in.
Now let's look at the financials honestly.
The net loss in the last quarter was $4.28 billion. In the previous quarter, it was $528 million. This is a serious deterioration and shows how heavy the costs of Starship development are. The company is not a profitable business, but a structure in an investment period and consuming enormous amounts of cash.
There's a wide gap between analyst targets. The lowest target is $63, the highest is $227. Such a wide range alone tells us that nobody can easily price this company using standard valuation methodologies.
The intersection with the crypto market is very interesting.
SpaceX holds $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. This means that when you buy SPCX, you are indirectly investing in Bitcoin as well. Michael Saylor summarized this development as follows: 25% of Mag8 now holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
The price discovery process in on-chain futures markets before the IPO was also very instructive. Decentralized derivatives markets priced between $150 and $220 before the $135 IPO price was announced. The information generation capacity of these markets is much faster and more transparent than traditional pre-IPO processes. The fact that the actual opening price occurred at the lower end of this range shows live how overly optimistic pricing is corrected.
I follow this stock with small positions. Why small? Because size control is critical in a stock that reports losses, where Starship costs are still uncertain, and which, at $170, is pricing in very high future expectations. But the long-term thesis is strong. If Starlink becomes a global internet infrastructure, if Starship is commercialized, and if xAI integration creates value, these prices may seem cheap in retrospect. It takes patience to see that picture. And for that patience, the position must be small.

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