$SNDK #MyGateTradeStory

$2,108. A 6.51% increase daily. Yesterday's close was $1,979.
16 months ago, this stock was offered to the public at $38.50.
Over 4,000% return. In 16 months.
Even writing this number feels strange. But the numbers are accurate.
When I started following this stock from the TradeFi section at Gate, I asked myself this question: Is this an AI story, or a real fundamental? Now I know the answer. Both.
SanDisk's story can actually be summarized in a single sentence. AI data centers want NAND flash storage. There are a limited number of companies in the world that produce this. SanDisk is the most focused of these companies.
The numbers confirm this. Q3 2026 revenue increased 251% year-over-year, reaching $5.95 billion. The company announced that the total value of long-term supply contracts it signed exceeded $42 billion. 2026 production capacity is completely sold out. A significant portion of 2027 capacity is already reserved.
Jensen Huang stated at CES in January 2026 that the data storage market is completely unsustainable and could become the world's largest storage market. Following this statement, SNDK surged 27.5% in a single day. The market read the demand behind these words very well.
Global NAND flash memory revenues reached a record $46 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Gartner estimates that NAND prices could increase by 234% throughout 2026. This demand will continue to exceed supply until 2028.
Now I'm looking at the chart.
All the daily moving averages are far behind. MA30 is at $1,579. MA60 is at $1,211. MA90 is at $1,016. The price is well above all these averages. SuperTrend shows $1,608. MACD values are in a strong upward trend. Today's high is $2,119, low is $2,021. Daily trading range is approximately 5 percent.
Monthly RSI is 99.19. This figure is extremely critical from a technical perspective. It's beyond the overbought zone, a level almost unseen.
To be honest, an RSI of 99.19 can say two things. First, the price has risen very quickly, and a correction or consolidation is inevitable. Second, the strength of the momentum reflects how strong the underlying story is. Both readings can be correct and coexist simultaneously.
I also cannot ignore the valuation issue. At the current price, the trailing P/E is 68.83 times. This is well above the historical average of the NAND sector. There is a significant gap between Wall Street price targets. The most conservative target is $2,100, which the price has already reached. The most aggressive target is $2,900. And it's important to remember that the memory chip sector is inherently cyclical. In 2022 and 2023, the same sector experienced a deep price crash due to overcapacity. This cycle will repeat itself once the current build-up period is complete. Probably between 2028 and 2029. But that's a distant scenario for now.
I'm following this stock through the Gate Trading section and I hold a small position. Why small? Because sizing a position in an asset with an RSI of 99.19 requires a lot of caution. When I'm right, the return is good. When I'm wrong, that is, when a correction or sector rotation occurs, the drop from this price can be sharp and rapid.
My strategy is this: I'm holding the current position. I'm not adding. I've placed limit buy orders between 1,850 and 1,900. If a consolidation or correction occurs, I will increase the position at these levels. If not, and the price establishes a permanent base above 2,200, I will re-evaluate according to that scenario. Apart from that, I have this question in mind. AI stories have always reached a point in history where expectations clash with reality. SNDK's underlying story is real, but its valuation has far surpassed its fundamentals. When these two meet again, that is, if the price moves sideways for a while and earnings increase, the picture will look much healthier. Buying a stock at that point with an RSI of 99 requires caution, not courage.

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