$BTC

Bitcoin is at $66,000. Its market capitalization increased by 5 trillion percent in 24 hours, reaching $2.29 trillion. The Fear and Greed index rose from 15 at the beginning of the week to 26. And today there are three questions, and I want to answer all three honestly.
First question: How permanent is the US-Iran agreement and what will its impact be on crypto?
First, it must be said that the signed document is not a peace treaty. This is a memorandum of understanding, that is, a framework to guide future negotiations. The official signing will take place in Switzerland on June 19th. The difference is important. Most experts describe it not as a comprehensive agreement, but as the two countries withdrawing from the firing line for now. There are risks. Israel sees the agreement as a threat to its security and actively expresses its opposition. Hardliners within the Iranian regime are being pressured. And the nuclear dimension of the agreement and Iran's ballistic missile program have not yet been resolved. A final agreement is targeted after a 60-day transition period, but any provocation during this process could change the picture. So why did the market react so strongly? Because markets react to stability, not peace. Oil fell below $81. The Strait of Hormuz opened. Energy inflationary pressure decreased. Insurance premiums fell. These are all real and measurable changes. Even if deep geopolitical problems remain unresolved, this operational normalization is sufficient for the market. I assess its impact on crypto as follows: In the short term, this effect has been priced in. The total market capitalization soared from $2.16 trillion to $2.29 trillion. This immediate reaction is essentially over. In the medium term, the real impact is indirect and much stronger. If energy prices fall, inflation declines, the Fed's tone changes, and the expectation of a real rate cut returns, this means a structural reversal of fortune for crypto. It's not a reaction to a single piece of news, but a change in the macroeconomic cycle. The fragility of the agreement is also a risk, but this risk comes as an unpriced surprise. If the process breaks down, oil will skyrocket again, and fear will return. I'm watching the $2.2 trillion support level for this. If it breaks, it means the rally was fake.
Second question: Bitcoin is at $65,000, what's next?
The honest answer is this: The rally came from a technically weak ground. The daily MA7 is still below the MA30, and the MA30 is below the MA120. The KDJ J value is in the 118.7 overbought region. The funding rate dropped by 86% and fell to 0.00012. This means new positions are being opened, but there's no real belief in going long. It's contradictory that funding remains close to negative while open positions increased by 12%. Short squeeze triggered this rally, and $207 million in short liquidations occurred.
But that's not the whole story.
$59,000 continues to strengthen as the bottom of this cycle. This level has been tested and held during multiple stressful moments. Whale accumulation in the last 30 days is at a record level since 2013. On-chain asset outflows are increasing, meaning people are pulling in to hold, not to sell. The SOPR is signaling a breakout from the surrender phase.
The technical resistance levels are as follows: $65,000 is the first critical zone, and we are currently above it. $66,500 is the next resistance. Between $68,000 and $69,500, there is a stronger structural resistance zone. If we cannot break these levels with increasing volume, the rally may fade. If we break them, the daily MA structure will begin to correct, and this picture will truly change.
The Fed is tomorrow. The dot plot is the most critical variable. If two rate cuts for 2026 become the median, this, combined with the oil price drop and the Iran agreement, confirms a strong macroeconomic turnaround. If only one rate cut remains, the market will read it neutrally. If it's zero, there will be selling pressure.
The Clarity Act also remains on the agenda with a target of July 4th. If one of these two catalysts occurs, i.e., the Fed is dovish or the law passes, $65,000 will remain a floor, not a transition point. Third question: How do I position myself when oil is falling and gold is strengthening? This time, oil and gold moved in different directions simultaneously. This is an accurate observation, and the mechanism behind it is important.
Oil is falling because the geopolitical risk premium is eroding. This movement from $110 to $81 is essentially the erosion of the risk premium. As energy supply normalizes, the price is expected to settle between $75 and $85. I don't expect a significant further decline in this range because the real supply-demand balance already supports this region. I'm not taking a new position in oil. I didn't have one anyway, and I don't see a reason to open one in the current uncertainty.
Gold is a different story. XAUT is currently between 4,195 and 4,222. The initial reaction to the agreement news was downward because the geopolitical risk premium eroded. But then it recovered. Why? Because the market realized this: the Iran agreement is lowering oil prices, when oil prices fall, inflation will fall, when inflation falls, the Fed's leverage decreases, and expectations of interest rate cuts revive. When expectations of interest rate cuts revive, real interest rates fall. When real interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of gold decreases.

I also traded in the XRP pair, which I always monitor throughout the day. I continue to closely follow BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and Chainlink. I'm waiting for an opportunity. This is an indirect but very strong support mechanism for gold. The Squeeze Momentum indicator went from negative 30 to positive 21. Technical bottom formation signals continue.
I am holding my XAUT position. If it tests the first resistance between 4,373 and 4,416 and momentum settles above 40, I will add more. This has not happened yet.
In my portfolio, gold and crypto work together. When Bitcoin moves sharply, gold remains calmer. When gold moves slowly, Bitcoin provides excitement. The balance between these two assets is not an investment strategy for me, but a psychological stabilizing tool.
The market had a good day today. But good days are the most dangerous times because the plan is forgotten, the position grows, and risk management loosens. I am acting with the same rules today and tomorrow. I don't risk more than I can lose. My plan is written down. I follow my signals.

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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.