Japan will raise interest rates tomorrow; if they don't,


their heads will be blown off.
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The Bank of Japan will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting on June 15–16, with the final interest rate decision announced on June 16 (tomorrow).
The market consensus expects a 25 basis point increase, with the policy rate rising from 0.75% to 1.0%, the highest in 31 years since 1995.
Only two extreme scenarios would pause the rate hike, and the likelihood of these occurring is very low:

1. Japan experiences a sudden major economic recession, with employment data collapsing sharply;

2. All nine policy board members collectively reverse course, voting against the rate hike (three members already supported the hike in April, so a collective shift is unlikely).
In the past two weeks, the USD/JPY exchange rate has come under pressure and retreated, with the market pricing in a rate hike and a bullish yen in advance. If there is a rate hike tomorrow plus hawkish comments, USD/JPY will further decline; if the stance is dovish, it will spike and then fall back.
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