The weekly chart of Bitcoin has already shown a five-wave structure. From the perspective of the main downward wave structure, it is already complete. However, this time it only lasted 238 days, whereas the five-wave decline in 2022 shown in Chart 2 was a standard 365-day year. This might be the reason why wave theory players don't believe that 59130 is the bottom, but I think regardless of whether there are new lows within a few months or not, we should still consider this possibility to some extent.

The most ideal buying position is definitely after this rebound, during the daily decline, whether it’s a new low or just a retest without a new low, it’s time to build a medium-term position. Including major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and others, they have also shown weekly-level bullish divergence patterns. Even if we don’t build positions in the past few days, the next small-scale daily correction will always require some accumulation.
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As for whether a complete bull market can still unfold from the 27th to the 29th, I’ve been discussing this topic for two years. We don’t know when the tech bull market in the US stock market will top; if it peaks during Bitcoin’s bull cycle, then Bitcoin’s bull will also end early. The long bull run in US stocks that started in early 2009, even with the pandemic and the rate hikes in 2022, only retraced 38% of the entire gain, which technically isn’t considered a bear phase corresponding to a multi-decade cycle, and can still be regarded as a retracement within a decades-long main upward wave. When the actual upward cycle ends, for example, as shown in Chart 3, from 1974 to over twenty years of rising, the bubble burst caused a 78% decline. Chart 4 shows the S&P 500’s decline of 50-60% over decades from the 1970s to the crises in 2000 and 2008.
This is what truly constitutes a major cycle correction. In comparison, 2020 and 2022 are not enough, so the nearly 18-year upward trend since early 2009 has not yet experienced a real major correction. We must always stay alert to this. But we also don’t know when a decade or two-long correction will start, so we can only watch and adapt as we go. I also believe in a theory that the tail end of a bubble is the most profitable stage, the phase of market frenzy and acceleration. How to balance risk and reward? It still depends on position management. For example, the double leveraged position on Samsung Hynix bottomed out in late March, and now it has gained 3.5 to over 7 times. Regardless of whether there are another six months or even a year of madness ahead, at least the principal and some profits can be taken off the table first. The same approach applies to crypto and the US stock market. Never always think it’s too high to buy; if you keep waiting, the price keeps rising to new highs, and you can’t resist going all-in, only to encounter a major top. Use market sentiment to your advantage, don’t fall into it.