Blackjack212

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The desert in Zhongwei is also my first time visiting, quite beautiful.
It would be even better if I could see the sunrise and the starry night sky.
The benefit of traveling frequently is that it helps shake off laziness; you always have to think about where to stay, what to eat, how to play, transportation routes, etc.
After being forced to move around, your whole thinking becomes more active.
Besides the remaining Three Mountains and Five Greats, I also want to visit the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and Inner Mongolia grasslands.
The student army will be setting out in August soon,
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Last week, I climbed Mount Hua and the deserts of Zhongwei, Ningxia in succession. Of the Three Mountains and Five Peaks, I’ve already climbed 5; I still haven’t been to Yandang Mountain and the North and Central Peaks, and I’m planning to visit all of them this year. Right now, I feel Huangshan and Mount Hua are in the first tier among the Three Mountains and Five Peaks—they’re really beautiful. If you can only visit two, I recommend these two.
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The weekly chart of Bitcoin has already shown a five-wave structure. From the perspective of the main downward wave structure, it is already complete. However, this time it only lasted 238 days, whereas the five-wave decline in 2022 shown in Chart 2 was a standard 365-day year. This might be the reason why wave theory players don't believe that 59130 is the bottom, but I think regardless of whether there are new lows within a few months or not, we should still consider this possibility to some extent.
The most ideal buying position is definitely after this rebound, during the daily decline,
BTC0.48%
SOL3.37%
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Over the past two months, the domestic semiconductor, storage, and packaging testing sectors have surged significantly, and it’s starting to look like profit-taking has begun.
However, the industry fundamentals are still strong, so we’ll wait until the market consolidates before reassessing.
It’s still unclear whether this consolidation will be wide-ranging or narrow.
In 1-2 weeks, once the consolidation pattern becomes clear, we should know whether there will be further market movement.
Currently, the tendency is that there will still be market opportunities.
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The past few years' decline in the U.S. stock market has a characteristic: most of the rebound has been V-shaped, rather than bottoming out for a long time with multiple tests or dips. This year’s March war, last April’s tariff battles, August 2024’s carry trade, etc. Essentially, these are localized negative shocks caused by news impacts when the fundamentals are sound. Once the news changes, the market quickly returns to the main growth trend.
Therefore, as long as the fundamentals of the U.S. stock market are sound, holding long-term is the top priority. Trying to do T+0 trading requires
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So far, the stock market trend and the expectations over the past few months remain consistent; the several bottom-fishing attempts in late March now appear to be near the lowest points. The bottom points for the major A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold were all on March 23, with the U.S. stock market lagging by one week. Currently, positions in multiple markets are at levels ranging from 7 to 9.
Major macroeconomic bearish factors over the past month:
1: The impact of war, including oil inflation issues (which have begun to weaken but are not fully resolved yet)
2: Doubts about high investm
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Today's big drop, I added to my position in A-shares again. I reduced my position at the highs in month 23, and this month I've been gradually buying back during the big dip.
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Big A broke through 4k, and US stocks are almost near the lowest point from last November. Planning to add some positions. Will wait and see in April if there are any lower levels.
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Last night, my dad told me that my grandfather was arrested and tortured in his youth by the famous 76th Intelligence Agency. The TV dramas "The Wind Chasers" and "The Pretender" are adaptations of related historical events. I was quite surprised. In the future, when I go back to Shanghai, I really want to visit the archives and the Financial Museum to learn more about the historical events. I had no idea about this before.
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Recently, the market trend simply replicates the mid-2022 movement. Those with insight can observe the late May to June and the oscillating trend from June to July of 2022 as a reference; oscillations can also generate some profits.
The trouble is with the Nasdaq's trend. In late February, a mild rebound was still expected. But in March and early April, the outlook is not optimistic. Over the past month, the Dow hit new highs, but the Nasdaq did not. This is a typical divergence between markets of similar types. Only after the risks in tech stocks are fully released will cryptocurrencies be
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Let's chat during the live stream tonight, the market is quite boring.
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Many industry leaders have outlined the core issues for next year: China lacks chips, the US lacks electricity, and the global lacks storage. Let me share my views. Several sectors to watch for continued growth in the big A-share market next year:
Non-ferrous metals, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, robotics, autonomous driving, data center-related CPO liquid-cooled power supplies, PCBs, etc.
Among these, non-ferrous metals, solid-state batteries, and data center-related fields have actual performance support.
Robotics and commercial aerospace might be driven by sentiment speculati
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After consecutive 46 days of decline, the bottom has also oscillated for 21 days. The 4h moving average has gradually converged from a bearish pattern, with the open interest decreasing and approaching consolidation. To put it simply, the market is not far from a trend reversal, especially after two days of low volatility over the weekend. The daily volatility is about to hit a two-month low, and the 4-hour volatility will also approach its lowest point in two months. Early next week, whether shorting or longing, it is worth taking a position, as there is a good chance to break out of the cons
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Views on stablecoins in May and the perspective on the new regulatory documents now.
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After reviewing a lot of data and financial media reports, professional opinions generally believe that AI is currently in a relatively similar stage to the internet in 1997-1998, and there is still time before a real bubble burst. Compared to the last round of the internet bubble, the current AI Primary Market investments are similar to those in 1999, while the Secondary Market resembles 1998, and the actual market demand is akin to that of 1996-1997. Even the CEO of Alibaba stated in the earnings call that there will be no bubble crisis within the next three years.
So I still feel that Ameri
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After looking at a lot of data and financial media reports, professional opinions generally believe that AI is currently in a relatively similar stage to the internet in 1997-1998, and there is still time before a true bubble burst phase. In comparison to the previous round of internet bubbles, the current AI Primary Market investment is akin to that of 1999, while the Secondary Market resembles that of 1998, and the actual market demand is similar to that of 1996-1997. The CEO of Alibaba also expressed in the earnings call that there will be no bubble crisis within three years.
So I still sub
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The market is indeed panicking, having risen more than 7000 dollars, with sentiment only rebounding from 10 to 12. I hope that in the next month, it will oscillate widely between just over 80k and 98k, similar to the first major rebound in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
When it broke below 90,000, I started to see a bear market, but I still maintain an open attitude about whether there will be a market next year. Because the decline that started from 126,000 could be the 4th wave of a super cycle (2022 was the 2nd wave of the super cycle) or it could be the 3-2 wave of a super cycle (1.5-126,000 is the
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Sentiment has hit a new low since the bottom at the end of 2022.
Last night, I even stopped out of some spot positions at 9k, and in less than a day, another nearly $8,000 has evaporated. In hindsight, I'm not even upset about last night's stop loss. The exchange rate keeps hitting new lows, indicating that selling sentiment in crypto is even stronger than in US stocks. We still need the exchange rate to stop falling before there's a chance to get in. A few days ago, trying to catch rebounds around 9k always started with profit, then turned into floating losses. So from 9k on, I'm just going t
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The two concerns for the market's previous fall were, first, whether interest rate cuts would come to an end, and second, worries about an AI bubble. NVIDIA's earnings report early this morning temporarily resolved the second concern, and market confidence has significantly restored. The probability of the decline that started at the end of October stopping is high. It just depends on how far the rebound goes.
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Equaling the worst market sentiment of the year. It is also the worst market sentiment in the past three years.
Even during a monthly downtrend, there will be weekly level rebounds, and even during a weekly downtrend, there will be daily level rebounds. It won't drop indefinitely.
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