After finally grinding down for so long, the wick below 68 is the first time it has felt like a small-scale bottom. Market sentiment here is already in extreme fear. Continue holding spot and observe for a while longer. Generally speaking, after the first rebound in this kind of gradual decline, there will be another slight new low, perhaps 1–3 weeks later. It will only be safe once a head-and-shoulders bottom forms. Only then can we determine whether this is the major-stage bottom. We can't be too optimistic yet; not enough time has passed, and the moving-average pattern isn't there yet eithe

blackjack212 2026-11-05

Volatility after the U.S. election is huge. I’ll keep sitting tight and stay away from semiconductors. If Bitcoin spot drops below 68,000, I’ll consider a spot stop-loss. Stay patient. If it doesn’t break below 68,000, we’ll talk market again in January.

blackjack212 2026-11-04

Looks like we can sit back for 1–2 months before harvesting. During that time, we just need to monitor for any major events that could damage the broader environment.

blackjack212 2026-11-04

The Democrats swept, another bearish blow for U.S. tech stocks. Patience is needed for crypto’s next rally.

blackjack212 2026-10-30

The last time a major exchange suspended withdrawals was also in October, six years ago. Those long-dead memories are coming back.

blackjack212 2026-10-20

After waiting for over half a month, and with the market also falling for over half a month, I started buying some Chinese and U.S. stock ETFs yesterday and today to see whether multiple markets will stop falling and rebound in sync.

blackjack212 2026-09-27

Indicators for monitoring a slowdown in AI investment: computing power rental prices and GPU utilization.

blackjack212 2026-09-15

This round of U.S. rate hikes seems unavoidable; the key is whether expectations of consecutive hikes emerge afterward. Pressure on growth stocks is inevitable, since the discount rate has risen. Future earnings, when discounted to the present, will certainly be worth less.

But historically, consecutive rate hikes have not always led to a sharp decline. For example, markets fell amid consecutive hikes in 2022 and 2005, but not in 1999 and 2004. In addition to the discount rate, stock price movements also depend on corporate earnings growth. Therefore, even if expectations of consecutive rate

blackjack212 2026-08-25

I’ve unloaded the 81,000 in leverage and will continue holding spot. There is a potential 4h divergence here.
Generally, after an extremely strong rally, it is less common for the price to immediately crash straight down; instead, it tends to consolidate and fluctuate strongly at the highs, gradually exhausting the upward momentum through consecutive divergences, as in January 2023. So I haven’t reduced my spot position yet and will continue holding for another 1–2 weeks before reassessing.

blackjack212 2026-08-05

At the end of June and beginning of July, I expected this round of adjustments at home and abroad to end after about a month. Now, in just four days, the S&P 500 and Dow have already hit record highs, while the Nasdaq has also erased 80% of the entire June-July decline. This is the difference between U.S. stocks and China’s A-shares.
Although U.S. stocks experience a crisis every decade or so, bull markets are long and bear markets are short, and most corrections during bull markets are V-shaped reversals. So the best strategy is not to avoid declines, but to stay invested most of the time. Af

SPX+0.33%

NAS100-0.07%

SNDK-4.17%

blackjack212 2026-07-31

The first wave of the big “miracle day” rebound is bumping into resistance along the downtrend line. It looks like that first big rebound is already over; next, we’ll keep seeing choppy, sideways movement. As for when the second wave of upside comes—see how it goes while it’s happening.

Also, in China’s tech sector—especially domestic storage-related names—today there were a lot of stocks that started by sealing the limit-up, then opened up, and in the end closed with a small gain. This shows the rebound’s persistence still isn’t strong enough.

When it comes to domestic tech, forget the memo

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blackjack212 2026-07-31

The first wave of the big miracle day rebound is being blocked by the descending trendline. The first big rebound should be over; next, it will continue to chop sideways. When the second wave of upswing comes, let’s watch as it unfolds.

Also, in China’s tech sector—especially domestic storage-related stocks—today saw a lot of stocks hit the daily limit with strong openings, then they broke the limit and ended up up slightly. This shows the rebound’s sustainability isn’t enough.

When it comes to domestic tech, forget the memory of last year’s breakout rally. It’s no longer the market mainstre

blackjack212 2026-07-28

We don’t know whether this is the bottom of the pullback yet, but today is the most panicked day I’ve seen in the past year—the emotions reached an extreme level. Especially for holders of tech stocks both at home and abroad.
My own judgment at the end of June was that a normal pullback in tech from late July to early August should bottom out. Let’s see in a month whether that judgment is correct.

blackjack212 2026-07-27

The capital feast of Changxin CXMT—institutions’ unrealized gains are measured in hundreds of millions, and even Hefei’s state-owned assets are in the trillion range. I sold after the open; mainly because I saw that the current market cap of Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron is only 6–7 hundred billion RMB, and Changxin is already half of theirs, so I don’t think there’s much upside imagination space afterward. But I’m already very satisfied—up nearly 6x.

In the next few days, we can track the trading volume, and also the relationship between Changxin and other technology sectors—does it keep fun

1.32k

blackjack212 2026-07-09

After three consecutive months of profit, July started off difficult. Slight crypto loss, major overseas pullback, A-shares avoided the first seven days of decline, but yesterday I couldn't resist adding tech stocks and got temporarily trapped.

Fortunately, US tech stocks started rebounding last night, and I hope it can drive a rebound in Korean stocks and domestic tech today. On the 10th, SK Hynix will list on Nasdaq. Compared to ETFs like 7709, the underlying stock has no wear. It's normal for funds to sell double ETFs before the listing and buy the underlying stock, which is why the premiu

TSM-1.72%

blackjack212 2026-07-02

After June, overseas account 10%, A-shares 9% outperforming 90% of retail investors. There are several changes in the market currently.
First: The tech sector's cumulative gains from April to June are too large, both domestically and internationally. However, domestic markets are still hyping the mid-year reports for July and August, still focusing on storage + semiconductor equipment/materials, and the earnings expectations for packaging and testing equipment are going to be explosive. So this round of domestic tech correction may not be very deep. But overseas storage gains are even more exa

META-0.82%

GLDX-0.40%

PAXG+0.37%

4.03k

blackjack212 2026-06-25

Micron's earnings report is explosive, with revenue, EPS, gross margin, and future guidance all significantly exceeding market expectations. This not only revives U.S. memory and related technology stocks. Samsung, SK Hynix, and a series of domestic memory companies will all benefit.

In July and August, the domestic interim report season will likely see memory and semiconductor equipment companies' earnings far exceeding expectations. Samsung and SK Hynix successfully executed T+0 trades.

2.71k

blackjack212 2026-06-23

Yesterday, I reduced my position at the storage peak because it was deviating from the moving average near an extreme. Sure enough, today’s sharp decline has already dropped 25%, including domestic storage reducing its position as well.
During the main upward wave, this reduction pattern is still effective, and I also used this method at the beginning of the year to hedge risks with gold and silver.
However, currently, the moving averages of major storage leaders both domestically and internationally are still diverging upward, so we cannot consider it a historical top. Let’s wait and see

GLDX-0.40%

PAXG+0.37%

XAU+0.38%

XAG+0.47%

1
5.85k

blackjack212 2026-06-16

The desert in Zhongwei is also my first time visiting, quite beautiful.
It would be even better if I could see the sunrise and the starry night sky.
The benefit of traveling frequently is that it helps shake off laziness; you always have to think about where to stay, what to eat, how to play, transportation routes, etc.
After being forced to move around, your whole thinking becomes more active.
Besides the remaining Three Mountains and Five Greats, I also want to visit the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and Inner Mongolia grasslands.
The student army will be setting out in August soon,