Blackjack212

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The first wave of the big “miracle day” rebound is bumping into resistance along the downtrend line. It looks like that first big rebound is already over; next, we’ll keep seeing choppy, sideways movement. As for when the second wave of upside comes—see how it goes while it’s happening.
Also, in China’s tech sector—especially domestic storage-related names—today there were a lot of stocks that started by sealing the limit-up, then opened up, and in the end closed with a small gain. This shows the rebound’s persistence still isn’t strong enough.
When it comes to domestic tech, forget the memory
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The first wave of the big miracle day rebound is being blocked by the descending trendline. The first big rebound should be over; next, it will continue to chop sideways. When the second wave of upswing comes, let’s watch as it unfolds.
Also, in China’s tech sector—especially domestic storage-related stocks—today saw a lot of stocks hit the daily limit with strong openings, then they broke the limit and ended up up slightly. This shows the rebound’s sustainability isn’t enough.
When it comes to domestic tech, forget the memory of last year’s breakout rally. It’s no longer the market mainstream
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We don’t know whether this is the bottom of the pullback yet, but today is the most panicked day I’ve seen in the past year—the emotions reached an extreme level. Especially for holders of tech stocks both at home and abroad.
My own judgment at the end of June was that a normal pullback in tech from late July to early August should bottom out. Let’s see in a month whether that judgment is correct.
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The capital feast of Changxin CXMT—institutions’ unrealized gains are measured in hundreds of millions, and even Hefei’s state-owned assets are in the trillion range. I sold after the open; mainly because I saw that the current market cap of Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron is only 6–7 hundred billion RMB, and Changxin is already half of theirs, so I don’t think there’s much upside imagination space afterward. But I’m already very satisfied—up nearly 6x.
In the next few days, we can track the trading volume, and also the relationship between Changxin and other technology sectors—does it keep func
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After three consecutive months of profit, July started off difficult. Slight crypto loss, major overseas pullback, A-shares avoided the first seven days of decline, but yesterday I couldn't resist adding tech stocks and got temporarily trapped.
Fortunately, US tech stocks started rebounding last night, and I hope it can drive a rebound in Korean stocks and domestic tech today. On the 10th, SK Hynix will list on Nasdaq. Compared to ETFs like 7709, the underlying stock has no wear. It's normal for funds to sell double ETFs before the listing and buy the underlying stock, which is why the premium
TSM0.87%
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After June, overseas account 10%, A-shares 9% outperforming 90% of retail investors. There are several changes in the market currently.
First: The tech sector's cumulative gains from April to June are too large, both domestically and internationally. However, domestic markets are still hyping the mid-year reports for July and August, still focusing on storage + semiconductor equipment/materials, and the earnings expectations for packaging and testing equipment are going to be explosive. So this round of domestic tech correction may not be very deep. But overseas storage gains are even more exa
META1.64%
GLDX-1.35%
PAXG-1.44%
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Micron's earnings report is explosive, with revenue, EPS, gross margin, and future guidance all significantly exceeding market expectations. This not only revives U.S. memory and related technology stocks. Samsung, SK Hynix, and a series of domestic memory companies will all benefit.
In July and August, the domestic interim report season will likely see memory and semiconductor equipment companies' earnings far exceeding expectations. Samsung and SK Hynix successfully executed T+0 trades.
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Yesterday, I reduced my position at the storage peak because it was deviating from the moving average near an extreme. Sure enough, today’s sharp decline has already dropped 25%, including domestic storage reducing its position as well.
During the main upward wave, this reduction pattern is still effective, and I also used this method at the beginning of the year to hedge risks with gold and silver.
However, currently, the moving averages of major storage leaders both domestically and internationally are still diverging upward, so we cannot consider it a historical top. Let’s wait and see
GLDX-1.35%
PAXG-1.44%
XAU-1.47%
XAG-2.03%
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The desert in Zhongwei is also my first time visiting, quite beautiful.
It would be even better if I could see the sunrise and the starry night sky.
The benefit of traveling frequently is that it helps shake off laziness; you always have to think about where to stay, what to eat, how to play, transportation routes, etc.
After being forced to move around, your whole thinking becomes more active.
Besides the remaining Three Mountains and Five Greats, I also want to visit the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and Inner Mongolia grasslands.
The student army will be setting out in August soon,
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Last week, I climbed Mount Hua and the deserts of Zhongwei, Ningxia in succession. Of the Three Mountains and Five Peaks, I’ve already climbed 5; I still haven’t been to Yandang Mountain and the North and Central Peaks, and I’m planning to visit all of them this year. Right now, I feel Huangshan and Mount Hua are in the first tier among the Three Mountains and Five Peaks—they’re really beautiful. If you can only visit two, I recommend these two.
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The weekly chart of Bitcoin has already shown a five-wave structure. From the perspective of the main downward wave structure, it is already complete. However, this time it only lasted 238 days, whereas the five-wave decline in 2022 shown in Chart 2 was a standard 365-day year. This might be the reason why wave theory players don't believe that 59130 is the bottom, but I think regardless of whether there are new lows within a few months or not, we should still consider this possibility to some extent.
The most ideal buying position is definitely after this rebound, during the daily decline,
BTC-3.07%
SOL-1.68%
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Over the past two months, the domestic semiconductor, storage, and packaging testing sectors have surged significantly, and it’s starting to look like profit-taking has begun.
However, the industry fundamentals are still strong, so we’ll wait until the market consolidates before reassessing.
It’s still unclear whether this consolidation will be wide-ranging or narrow.
In 1-2 weeks, once the consolidation pattern becomes clear, we should know whether there will be further market movement.
Currently, the tendency is that there will still be market opportunities.
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The past few years' decline in the U.S. stock market has a characteristic: most of the rebound has been V-shaped, rather than bottoming out for a long time with multiple tests or dips. This year’s March war, last April’s tariff battles, August 2024’s carry trade, etc. Essentially, these are localized negative shocks caused by news impacts when the fundamentals are sound. Once the news changes, the market quickly returns to the main growth trend.
Therefore, as long as the fundamentals of the U.S. stock market are sound, holding long-term is the top priority. Trying to do T+0 trading requires
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So far, the stock market trend and the expectations over the past few months remain consistent; the several bottom-fishing attempts in late March now appear to be near the lowest points. The bottom points for the major A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold were all on March 23, with the U.S. stock market lagging by one week. Currently, positions in multiple markets are at levels ranging from 7 to 9.
Major macroeconomic bearish factors over the past month:
1: The impact of war, including oil inflation issues (which have begun to weaken but are not fully resolved yet)
2: Doubts about high investm
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Today's big drop, I added to my position in A-shares again. I reduced my position at the highs in month 23, and this month I've been gradually buying back during the big dip.
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Big A broke through 4k, and US stocks are almost near the lowest point from last November. Planning to add some positions. Will wait and see in April if there are any lower levels.
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Last night, my dad told me that my grandfather was arrested and tortured in his youth by the famous 76th Intelligence Agency. The TV dramas "The Wind Chasers" and "The Pretender" are adaptations of related historical events. I was quite surprised. In the future, when I go back to Shanghai, I really want to visit the archives and the Financial Museum to learn more about the historical events. I had no idea about this before.
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Recently, the market trend simply replicates the mid-2022 movement. Those with insight can observe the late May to June and the oscillating trend from June to July of 2022 as a reference; oscillations can also generate some profits.
The trouble is with the Nasdaq's trend. In late February, a mild rebound was still expected. But in March and early April, the outlook is not optimistic. Over the past month, the Dow hit new highs, but the Nasdaq did not. This is a typical divergence between markets of similar types. Only after the risks in tech stocks are fully released will cryptocurrencies be
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Let's chat during the live stream tonight, the market is quite boring.
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Many industry leaders have outlined the core issues for next year: China lacks chips, the US lacks electricity, and the global lacks storage. Let me share my views. Several sectors to watch for continued growth in the big A-share market next year:
Non-ferrous metals, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, robotics, autonomous driving, data center-related CPO liquid-cooled power supplies, PCBs, etc.
Among these, non-ferrous metals, solid-state batteries, and data center-related fields have actual performance support.
Robotics and commercial aerospace might be driven by sentiment speculati
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