June 16, Tuesday BTC Early Morning Thoughts

In the early session, the market experienced a rally driven by positive geopolitical developments between the US and Iran, with prices stabilizing around 67,000, reaching a high of 67,255. Short-term short positions were liquidated for nearly 200 million USD, indicating a clear improvement in risk appetite. On the technical side, the four-hour chart remains above the 50 and 100-day moving averages, with previous resistance turning into short-term support at 65,300. The key resistance above is at the 200-day moving average around 71,100. However, the four-hour RSI has entered overbought territory, and after a continuous surge, bullish momentum is overextended, suggesting a short-term pullback to gather strength. A normal correction would test the 65,300 support to confirm its strength.
On the macro level, easing geopolitical tensions have led to a slight weakening of the US dollar, providing short-term support for risk assets. However, medium- and long-term bearish factors remain: spot ETF outflows continue at high levels, and institutional funds have not yet returned. Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting remains the biggest uncertainty, with concerns that high interest rates may persist longer, limiting the upside potential of this rebound.
Overall, the early morning rally is a rebound after an oversold condition, not a trend reversal. In the short term, avoid blindly chasing highs; wait for a pullback to key support levels to observe the buying strength. If support is broken, a further decline in a weak structure will continue.
Trading suggestion: wait for a pullback to 660-655, with a target of 675. If the resistance is not broken, consider reversing $BTC the position.