#我的Gate交易时刻 Bitcoin soars past $65k; will Warsh's debut dampen the mood?

#我的Gate交易时刻 Bitcoin soars past $65k, will Warsh's debut dampen the enthusiasm?
After U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that the peace agreement with Iran "is now complete" and that the U.S. will end its blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, market risk appetite has returned.
Asian stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 futures up about 1%. Brent crude oil fell over 4%. WTI crude oil prices plummeted nearly 5%, to just below $81 per barrel, the lowest in about two months. A lasting peace agreement would be welcomed news for the global economy.
Since the end of February, the strategic Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, cutting off most of the oil and natural gas exports from the Persian Gulf, impacting the global economy with oil price shocks. Reports indicate that the agreement is expected to be officially signed in Switzerland on Friday. Before that, markets will closely watch three key variables: whether the agreement can be signed on time, whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can truly resume, and whether Iran’s nuclear issue will reignite tensions in subsequent negotiations.

Follow Warsh’s debut
De-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East may support risk assets before Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair this week.
However, if the Fed signals higher interest rates, it could pressure cryptocurrencies. The market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged this week, but what truly influences the market is how Warsh sets the future policy tone. Investors will focus on three points: whether the Fed downplays rate cut expectations, whether it emphasizes that inflation remains sticky, and whether the latest dot plot signals a more hawkish stance.
If Warsh emphasizes tariffs, core inflation, and labor market resilience in the press conference, implying the Fed needs to maintain high interest rates for longer and possibly further rate hikes, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields could strengthen, while stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies may face a pullback.
Conversely, if Warsh acknowledges that the U.S.-Iran agreement eases oil price shocks and states that falling energy prices help reduce inflation pressures, avoiding hawkish signals, the market may continue to bet on risk appetite returning. In that case, tech stocks, Bitcoin, and other high-beta assets could see further support. Sean McNulty, Head of Derivatives Trading in Asia-Pacific at FalconX, said: “This week’s focus is on Wednesday’s Fed meeting. The market expects a shift from easing to neutral/hawkish stance, and an unexpectedly hawkish tone would be the main downside risk for cryptocurrencies.”

Bitcoin breaking $64k as a catalyst
Renowned crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe believes that Bitcoin breaking through $64,000 is a catalyst for risk appetite returning. Van de Poppe predicts: “Altcoins will benefit from this move and gain more liquidity. We might see another wave of strong performance in the market.” He added, “From this perspective, a breakout above $64,000 means risk appetite is returning. Altcoins will benefit from this move and gain more liquidity, and we may see the strongest assets in the market rise further.”
Popular crypto analyst and trader Ali Martinez stated that if Ethereum re-enters the $1,070 range, which is the lower boundary of a multi-year channel pattern, it would present “one of the best buying opportunities.” Martinez said: “If Ethereum (ETH) retests $1,070, I believe, based on this multi-year channel pattern, it will be one of the best buy signals on the chart.”