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Bernstein: Robinhood will earn $586 million in prediction markets - ForkLog
Broker Robinhood will benefit from record activity on prediction markets during the World Cup (WC). Bernstein said this, as reported by The Block.
In the first days of the World Cup, the platform’s daily trading volume jumped from $2.2 billion (June 11) to $4.8 billion (June 12, USA vs. Paraguay match). For comparison: last year’s Super Bowl generated $1.4 billion.
Analysts expect Robinhood’s revenue from prediction markets to grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026 — an increase of 286%. In 2026, the segment will account for approximately 17% of the company’s commission income and 10% of its total revenue.
Separately, Bernstein noted Robinhood’s partnership with Rothera, a licensed CFTC exchange and clearinghouse. Since the platform launched on May 28, it has processed about 200 million contracts. Nearly all of the volume came from World Cup football and MLB contracts.
Among Robinhood’s advantages, specialists highlighted access to its proprietary user base and favorable pricing terms. The company charges a commission of up to $0.01 per contract and offers Gold subscribers a discount of up to 50%.
Bernstein also pointed to increasing pressure from competitors. Polymarket launched contracts for events involving private companies, and Kalshi offers regulated CFTC perpetual futures on the largest cryptocurrencies.
Recall that in May, the CEO of Bubblemaps called prediction markets “a tool for intelligence gathering and information warfare.”