This week's macro triple play: Waller's debut + US-Japan rate decision double header

The US-Iran agreement sets a bullish tone, but the real test will explode within 48 hours
① Waller's debut: June 17
Probability of holding rates steady 98.5%, this is not a suspense
The suspense is how he speaks, the new chair's first speech, every forward guidance sentence will be overinterpreted by the market.
More data needed vs. inflation path encouraging, impact on risk assets varies by 5-8%
② Bank of Japan: June 16, carry trade bomb
The BOJ is reportedly considering further rate hikes, landing just a day before the FOMC
The chain is clear: Yen rate hike → Yen appreciation → Carry trade unwinding → Global risk asset pressure
During the August 2025 yen earthquake, bitcoin:native dropped 15% in a single day, the trigger was not large, but heavy carry positions amplified the shock
How heavy the carry positions are this time, see you tomorrow for the answer
③ US long-term bonds: US-Iran détente is just a discount
Long-term yields remain near 19-year highs, falling oil prices are a real positive, but fiscal deficits and fundamental labor market pressures haven't changed
Whether long-term rates can materially fall depends on Waller's signals, not on the US-Iran agreement
If all three go smoothly: bitcoin:native target $70K+
Any hiccup: US-Iran bullish tone quickly reverses
US-Iran is this year's biggest macro gift, but there are three gates before the gift
Maintain position flexibility within 48 hours, not caution, but respect for variables
DYOR, not investment advice