Oil prices fall below $80! US-Iran agreement triggers chain reaction: gold retreats, Israel announces no withdrawal of troops

Iran and the U.S. reached a ceasefire agreement on June 15, causing a rapid chain reaction in the crude oil, gold, and U.S. stock markets. WTI crude futures fell below $80 per barrel for the first time in three months; spot gold dropped more than $10 in a single day; Dow futures rose over 1%. Meanwhile, Israel’s Minister of Defense announced that the U.S.-Iran agreement is non-binding, and Israeli troops will continue to stay in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.

US-Iran Agreement Takes Effect: Pakistan to Host Signing Ceremony

According to CCTV, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz announced in Parliament that Pakistan will host the signing ceremony of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding in Geneva. This marks the official entry into the signing phase of the agreement. After over two months of intermittent negotiations, the U.S. and Iran finalized a provisional deal on Trump’s 80th birthday, leaving a 60-day window for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.

The memorandum will be formally signed on June 19. Analysts note that disagreements remain on the most contentious issues, and the details of the text may not be fully finalized, with the formal signing process potentially facing obstacles.

Market Chain Reaction: Major Changes in Oil, Gold, and U.S. Stocks

The market response to the U.S.-Iran peace agreement was immediate. Here are the main market movements:

• WTI crude futures: fell below $80 per barrel for the first time since March, with a intraday decline of 5.76%
• Spot gold: short-term decline of over $10, currently at $4,320 per ounce
• Dow futures: increased by 1%, Nasdaq 100 futures up nearly 2%, S&P 500 futures up 1.26%
• Asian stock markets: Manila Composite Index surged over 6%, leading major Asian markets

Concerns over energy supply have significantly eased with the agreement. Falling oil prices directly reduce inflationary pressures, opening space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The crypto market also benefits, with Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounding from oversold levels, and options markets showing traders continuing to buy call options.

Israel Will Not Withdraw Troops: Defense Minister Says “Agreement Does Not Bind Us”

Although a peace agreement has been reached, the subsequent developments in the Middle East remain uncertain. On the same day, Israel’s Defense Minister stated that Prime Minister Netanyahu is leading a clear policy: Israeli Defense Forces will remain stationed in security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.

The Defense Minister pointed out that Israel will clear local residents and all hostile infrastructure in these areas, including homes in villages bordering enemies. “Seizing territory and security zones is one of the greatest achievements of the Israeli military in this war,” he said. Defense Minister Gvir added that Trump’s agreement “does not bind us,” emphasizing that Israel is an independent sovereign nation and will not withdraw from territories it has occupied and cleared.

If Iran attacks Israel due to events in Lebanon, Israel will respond directly by attacking Iran. Netanyahu has explicitly communicated this to Trump and other senior U.S. officials.

Impact on Taiwan: Energy Costs and Exchange Rates

As an energy-importing country, Taiwan benefits from falling crude oil prices, which directly lower power generation and transportation costs. WTI has dropped from the $85 range to below $80, meaning Taiwan could save hundreds of millions of New Taiwan Dollars in monthly oil import expenses. Additionally, a slowdown in the U.S. dollar helps stabilize the New Taiwan Dollar exchange rate, reducing import inflation pressures. If the U.S.-Iran agreement is successfully signed on June 19, the peace dividend will further reflect in inflation data in the second half of the year.