The market will focus on the ceasefire headline.

I’m watching the order of the deal.

Phase 1 removes the immediate war premium.

Phase 2 targets the economic pressure points: frozen assets, energy exports and the Strait of Hormuz.

Phase 3 tries to turn de-escalation into long-term capital deployment through reconstruction and broader sanctions relief.

That sequence matters.

Reopening Hormuz could remove part of the supply-risk premium embedded in oil. Releasing $24B would give Iran near-term liquidity, while energy waivers could bring more barrels into global markets.

That combination is potentially softer oil, lower inflation pressure and better conditions for risk assets.

But the $300B reconstruction fund is the deeper signal.

If it becomes real, this stops being only a peace agreement. It becomes a regional capital-reallocation event involving infrastructure, energy, logistics and trade.

The risk is execution.

A phased deal has several failure points. One broken commitment on shipping, nuclear terms or sanctions could quickly restore the geopolitical premium markets are now trying to remove.

So I would not trade the headline alone.

I would watch oil, shipping activity through Hormuz and the actual release of frozen funds.

The ceasefire moves sentiment.

Implementation moves capital.

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