Weekly Macro Outlook: US-Iran Agreement Sets Bullish Tone, US and Japan Rate Decisions Test Market Strength, Vos "Debut" Worth Watching

June 15, the beginning of this week, the US-Iran agreement seems to have laid the groundwork for the continuation of the US stock market rally, with markets opening higher on positive news. However, market focus will shift midweek to rate decisions from major central banks including the Federal Reserve, with Vos set to deliver his first important speech since taking office. Markets expect him to send clear signals regarding the interest rate path and reforms to the Fed’s communication mechanism. Below are the key points to watch in the new week (all times Beijing):

Monday 15:15, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech;

Tuesday TBD, Bank of Japan announces rate decision; 14:30, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida holds a monetary policy press conference;

Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending May 30;

Thursday 2:00, Federal Reserve FOMC releases rate decision and economic projections; 2:30, Fed Chair Vos holds a monetary policy press conference;

Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, and the June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Regarding policy signals, markets focus on whether three hawkish signals from the Fed will materialize: First, whether the phrase “next step leaning towards rate cuts” in the policy statement will be removed. If deleted, it indicates the Fed has officially ended its previous easing bias and shifted to a focus on inflation fighting. Second, changes in the dot plot: the March dot plot showed one rate cut this year, but this time it is likely to shift to show stable rates or even a majority of officials expecting rate hikes. Lastly, risk appetite tilt: if officials’ concerns about inflation intensify and worries about the labor market diminish, it could pave the way for further rate hikes.

On Friday (June 19), due to the June holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for one day. Gold, energy, forex, stock index, and US Treasury futures trading on CME will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20, and Brent crude oil futures trading on ICE will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20. #比特币反弹 #比特币 #以太坊